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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals
polymarket
kalshi
predict

Who will win Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals?

Volume:
$668,076

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 4, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 11:05 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$339,154
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals

View
N/A
N/A
—
$73
$5,566
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Spread -3.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$29,335
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$28,096
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$20,109
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -4.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$16,501
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -5.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$9,112
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

NRFI

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,920
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$123
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$99
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$72
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 7.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$34
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$127,501
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$77,019
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 8.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,578
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 11.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,475
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Game goes to extra innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$768
N/A
N/A
$748
Settled
No
polymarket

Extra Innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 14.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$207
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 15.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$154
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 12.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$93
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 29

Description

This event group covers an MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals scheduled for July 4, 2026 at 11:05 AM ET. Markets span three outcome types: match winner (Pirates vs Nationals), first-inning run scoring (Yes/No), and extra-innings occurrence (Yes/No). Resolution depends on official MLB final statistics.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Three distinct market types (match winner, first-inning scoring, extra-innings) are grouped under one event. Kalshi extra-innings market lacks explicit postponement/cancellation language, while Polymarket/Predict match-winner markets include 50-50 tie/cancellation clauses. These are scope differences, not contradictions.Hero tip: Recognize these as three separate settlement events. For match-winner markets, monitor for July 4 weather delays and tie risk. For Kalshi extra-innings market, obtain written clarification on postponement handling before settlement. Always verify final outcome against MLB.com box score and official statistics within 24 hours.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Two distinct markets: (1) Match winner resolves to Pirates or Nationals; 50-50 on cancellation/tie/no makeup. (2) First-inning run scoring resolves Yes if any run scored in inning 1, No otherwise; 50-50 on cancellation/no makeup. Primary source: Official MLB statistics within 24 hours, or credible reporting consensus.
  • Kalshi: Extra-innings market resolves Yes if game goes to extra innings, No otherwise. No explicit language on postponement, tie, or cancellation handling. Scope is fundamentally different from match-winner markets.
  • Predict: Match winner market identical to Polymarket: resolves to Pirates or Nationals; 50-50 on cancellation/tie/no makeup. Primary source: Official MLB statistics within 24 hours, or credible reporting consensus.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals, scheduled for July 4 at 11:05AM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

If Pittsburgh and Washington go to extra innings in the Pittsburgh vs Washington professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 4, 2026 at 11:05 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Predict

In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals, scheduled for July 4 at 11:05AM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price the same event through different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds based on risk management and profit margins, while this market reflects pure trader consensus—what participants collectively believe will happen. Prediction markets often react faster to breaking news because traders profit directly from accurate forecasts, whereas sportsbooks adjust lines to balance action. Both can diverge significantly depending on public betting patterns, sharp money flow, and information asymmetry. Comparing the two reveals whether one venue is overvaluing or undervaluing a particular outcome relative to the other.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, all of which influence price discovery. Polymarket may see heavier volume from one betting segment while Kalshi draws a distinct user base with different risk appetites. Timing lags in order-book updates, variations in platform UI and accessibility, and differences in withdrawal or settlement speed can create temporary arbitrage windows. Additionally, each venue's historical accuracy and reputation may cause traders to weight information differently, leading to measurable price spreads between them on the same event.

Key catalysts include injury reports, lineup changes, and weather updates affecting playing conditions at game time. Pitching matchups and recent team performance streaks often drive significant repricing as traders reassess win probability. Trades or roster moves announced before the game can shift sentiment, as can public betting trends that reveal sharp money positioning. Real-time game developments—early runs, errors, or momentum shifts—typically cause sharp price swings during live play. Monitor team news, Vegas line movements, and social sentiment for early signals that may precede major market moves.