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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the first 5 innings: Pirates or Phillies?

Volume:
$239,793

Philadelphia wins first 5 innings

 - Kalshi

Philadelphia wins first 5 innings - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 2, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 8:39 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Philadelphia wins first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$156,254
N/A
N/A
$85,442
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Philadelphia Phillies

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$24
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Pittsburgh wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$47,001
N/A
N/A
$40,421
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$35,184
N/A
N/A
$27,143
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,325
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Pittsburgh Pirates

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers the outcome of the first 5 innings of the MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT. Markets track which team is winning (or if tied) at the conclusion of the 5th inning, with separate binary and three-way outcome structures across platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market definition contains a logical contradiction where all three mutually exclusive outcomes resolve to YES, rendering the market fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket provides a coherent three-way outcome structure.Hero tip: Kalshi's market is broken and should not be traded. Use Polymarket as the sole reliable source. Kalshi requires immediate platform correction before settlement can occur.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Market structure defines three binary outcomes: (1) Philadelphia wins first 5 innings resolves YES, (2) Tie in first 5 innings resolves YES, (3) Pittsburgh wins first 5 innings resolves YES. This is logically impossible—exactly one outcome will occur, but all three are marked YES, creating an unresolvable contradiction.
  • Polymarket: Three-way outcome market with mutually exclusive resolutions: Philadelphia Phillies (if leading after 5 innings), Pittsburgh Pirates (if leading after 5 innings), or Draw (if tied after 5 innings). Includes explicit contingency rules: postponed games remain open until 5th inning completion; canceled games with no makeup resolve 50-50. Primary resolution source is official MLB final statistics, with credible reporting as fallback within 24 hours.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies, scheduled for July 1 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

If Pittsburgh wins the first 5 innings of the Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 1, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. If Philadelphia wins the first 5 innings of the Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 1, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. If Pittsburgh and Philadelphia tie in the first 5 innings of the Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 1, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on real-money stakes and continuous trading, which often produces odds that reflect live consensus faster than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set fixed lines and manage risk through juice; prediction markets adjust dynamically as new information arrives. For a first five innings matchup, prediction market prices can diverge from sportsbook moneylines because they aggregate thousands of independent traders rather than relying on a single oddsmaker's model. This often yields sharper, more responsive pricing.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures. Polymarket may see heavier volume from one betting cohort, while Kalshi draws another, causing temporary price gaps. Market microstructure—such as order-book depth, settlement rules nuances, and user interface design—also influences how quickly each platform reprices in response to news. These differences typically narrow as arbitrageurs exploit spreads, but gaps can persist during low-liquidity windows or when new information hits one venue before the other.

Injury reports, lineup changes, and starting pitcher announcements are primary catalysts. Weather conditions at game time—wind direction, temperature, humidity—affect early-inning scoring pace and can shift trader expectations. Recent team performance, bullpen availability, and head-to-head matchup history also influence positioning. As game time approaches, any late-breaking roster news or weather alerts will likely trigger repricing. During the game itself, early runs, defensive plays, and pitcher performance in the first few innings will drive rapid market adjustments as traders update their edge estimates.