TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies - First 5 Innings Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the first 5 innings: Pirates or Phillies?

Volume:
$92,305

Philadelphia wins first 5 innings

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jun 30, 8:04 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Philadelphia wins first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$59,492
N/A
N/A
$47,191
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Philadelphia Phillies

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$176
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Pittsburgh wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$22,082
N/A
N/A
$18,797
Settled
No
polymarket

Pittsburgh Pirates

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,526
N/A
N/A
$6,472
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group resolves based on which team is winning (or if tied) at the end of the 5th inning of the Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB game scheduled for June 30, 2026 at 6:40 PM ET. The market covers three possible outcomes: Pirates lead, Phillies lead, or a tie after 5 complete innings.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi presents three mutually exclusive outcomes as separate binary Yes/No questions without explicit clarification that only one can resolve Yes. Polymarket uses a unified three-way categorical structure (Pirates/Phillies/Draw) that is logically coherent. The underlying event and resolution source are identical across platforms, but the market presentation differs significantly.Hero tip: Both platforms will resolve based on the official score at the end of the 5th inning. The divergence is structural, not substantive. Assume Kalshi's non-occurring outcomes resolve to No per standard binary market convention. Monitor Kalshi's terms for any ambiguity around the resolution of the two losing outcomes before settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Three separate categorical markets with explicit mutual exclusivity. One market resolves to Pirates, one to Phillies, one to Draw. Resolution source is official MLB final statistics or credible consensus if not published within 24 hours. Postponed games remain open until 5th inning completion; canceled games with no makeup resolve 50-50.
  • Kalshi: Three binary Yes/No questions for the same event (Pirates win, Phillies win, Tie). Each question states 'if [outcome] occurs, then resolves to Yes' but does not explicitly state how the two non-occurring outcomes resolve. Assumes standard binary convention (non-occurring = No) but lacks explicit confirmation.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies, scheduled for June 30 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the score at the end of the fifth inning in the Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia professional baseball game originally scheduled for June 30, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT. If Pittsburgh has more runs, the Pittsburgh outcome resolves to Yes and all others resolve to No. If Philadelphia has more runs, the Philadelphia outcome resolves to Yes and all others resolve to No. If both teams have equal runs, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes and all team outcomes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed lines set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks adjust odds to balance action and manage risk; prediction markets reflect live trader conviction and aggregate information in real time. This market's odds may diverge from traditional sportsbook lines because traders continuously reprice based on injury reports, weather, lineup changes, and other factors. Prediction market prices often reveal sharper consensus than early sportsbook lines, particularly as event time nears and new data surfaces.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can create temporary price gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi may also interpret outcome definitions slightly differently or settle on different timing windows. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these spreads, but if one platform has lower volume or slower price discovery, discrepancies can persist. Monitoring both venues reveals the true range of market opinion and helps identify when one platform is lagging behind emerging consensus.

Key catalysts include lineup announcements, starting pitcher confirmation, and last-minute injury reports affecting either team's offensive or defensive strength. Weather conditions—wind direction, temperature, and humidity—can significantly influence early-inning scoring patterns. Pregame betting action and sharp money flowing into sportsbooks often precedes prediction market repricing. Breaking news on player availability, trades, or roster changes in the days before the game can also shift trader positioning. Real-time game developments like early runs, errors, or momentum swings will drive continuous price adjustments as first pitch approaches.