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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the first 5 innings: Pirates or Phillies?

Volume:
$205,242

Pittsburgh wins first 5 innings

 - Kalshi

Pittsburgh wins first 5 innings - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 30, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:19 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Pittsburgh wins first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$107,967
N/A
N/A
$80,715
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Philadelphia wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$81,224
N/A
N/A
$47,285
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,596
N/A
N/A
$8,860
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Philadelphia Phillies

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,454
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Pittsburgh Pirates

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers the outcome of the first 5 innings in the MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT. Markets track which team is ahead (or tied) at the conclusion of the 5th inning, with separate binary and categorical resolution structures across platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's binary market contains a logical contradiction: all three mutually exclusive outcomes (Pittsburgh win, Philadelphia win, tie) are mapped to the same resolution (Yes), making the market fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket correctly implements a three-outcome categorical structure with proper outcome differentiation.Hero tip: The Kalshi market as written is logically broken and should not be traded. Focus on Polymarket's categorical market (Pittsburgh Pirates / Philadelphia Phillies / Draw), which has coherent resolution logic and explicit edge-case rules for postponements and cancellations.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary market with tautological resolution: all three possible outcomes (Pittsburgh win, Philadelphia win, tie) resolve to Yes. Quote: 'If Pittsburgh wins...then Yes. If Philadelphia wins...then Yes. If tie...then Yes.' This is logically incoherent for a binary market.
  • Polymarket: Categorical three-outcome market with proper differentiation: resolves to Pittsburgh Pirates if Pittsburgh leads after 5 innings, Philadelphia Phillies if Philadelphia leads, or Draw if tied. Includes explicit rules for postponements (market remains open until 5th inning completed) and cancellations (50-50 split if no makeup game).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies, scheduled for June 29 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on which team has the higher score at the end of the first five innings of the Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia professional baseball game scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT. Pittsburgh wins the first five innings if it has more runs than Philadelphia at that point. Philadelphia wins the first five innings if it has more runs than Pittsburgh at that point. If both teams have the same score at the end of the first five innings, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes and all team outcomes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed odds set by a sportsbook. Traders buy and sell shares reflecting their belief in each outcome, creating dynamic prices that often reflect sharper, less-biased forecasts than traditional sportsbooks. This market's odds fluctuate based on real money at stake and information flow, meaning early movers and informed bettors can find value before consensus hardens. Comparing these prices to your preferred sportsbook can reveal arbitrage or edge.

Lineup announcements, injury reports, and weather conditions can shift odds significantly before first pitch. Starting pitcher form, bullpen availability, and recent offensive trends influence early-inning scoring expectations. Breaking news about key players or unexpected roster changes often triggers sharp repricing. As game time nears, live betting action and late-arriving information typically compress spreads. Monitor sports news feeds and team social media for catalysts that could swing this market before the opening pitch.