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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics - First 5 Innings Winner

Volume:
$64,248

Over 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings

 - Kalshi

Over 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 17, 2026

Closed: Jun 16, 11:14 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Over 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,918
N/A
N/A
$7,822
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 1.5 runs in the first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,722
N/A
N/A
$5,714
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 3.5 runs in the first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,797
N/A
N/A
$3,271
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,385
N/A
N/A
$2,808
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 0.5 runs in the first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$377
N/A
N/A
$377
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Athletics

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 5.5 runs in the first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$27,582
N/A
N/A
$17,391
Settled
No
kalshi

Over 6.5 runs in the first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,138
N/A
N/A
$8,852
Settled
No
polymarket

Pittsburgh Pirates

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$64
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$64
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event group covers the outcome of the first 5 innings of the Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Oakland Athletics MLB game scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT. Kalshi offers run-total markets (over/under thresholds), while Polymarket offers head-to-head winner and tie markets for the 5-inning checkpoint.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi markets measure cumulative run totals (settlement value thresholds), while Polymarket markets determine head-to-head winner status or tie after 5 innings. These are distinct resolution dimensions that do not map to each other.Hero tip: Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket outcomes will align. A high-scoring tie (e.g., 5-5) triggers Kalshi YES on multiple thresholds but resolves Polymarket to Draw. Conversely, a 1-0 game satisfies low Kalshi thresholds but clearly determines a Polymarket winner. Evaluate run production and team strength separately for each platform.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Seven binary run-total markets. Each resolves YES if Pittsburgh + Athletics combined runs exceed a specific threshold (0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5) during the first 5 innings. Resolution is purely quantitative and independent of which team scores the runs. Key Quote: 'If Pittsburgh and A's collectively score more than [X] runs in the first 5 innings of the Pittsburgh vs A's professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jun 16, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Three linked categorical markets determining the leader or tie status after 5 innings. Resolves to Pittsburgh Pirates (if Pirates lead), Athletics (if Athletics lead), or Draw (if tied). Postponed games remain open until completion; canceled games with no makeup resolve 50-50. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw".'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Athletics, scheduled for June 16 at 9:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

The Pittsburgh vs A's game scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT will be evaluated based on combined run production during the first five innings only. Markets resolve Yes if Pittsburgh and the A's collectively score more than 0.5 runs, more than 1.5 runs, more than 2.5 runs, more than 3.5 runs, more than 4.5 runs, more than 5.5 runs, or more than 6.5 runs through the completion of the fifth inning. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days. The official score at the end of five innings determines all resolutions.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates trader positions across Polymarket and Kalshi, tracking real-time consensus on which team will lead after the first five innings of play. Traders on both platforms are pricing the likelihood of a Pirates victory, an Athletics victory, or a tie through the fifth-inning mark. By monitoring the Pirates-Athletics first 5 innings winner market across multiple venues, you can spot pricing divergence, compare conviction levels, and identify arbitrage opportunities. The aggregated view shows how different prediction market communities are weighing early-game momentum and pitching matchups.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on continuous trader-set pricing, whereas traditional sportsbooks post fixed or semi-fixed lines managed by oddsmakers. Prediction market odds often reflect real-time sentiment and can move more fluidly in response to breaking news, lineup changes, or injury reports. Sportsbook odds are designed to balance action and lock in margins, so they may lag behind prediction market repricing. Comparing this market's odds to major sportsbooks can reveal whether traders are pricing in information faster or whether consensus differs on early-game outcomes.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, leading to natural price variation. Polymarket and Kalshi may also frame the outcome slightly differently—one focusing on a tie scenario, the other on run totals—which can push odds apart. Regulatory differences and settlement timing between venues can also create temporary arbitrage windows. Monitoring both platforms helps you identify mispricings and understand which community is more bullish on an early Pirates or Athletics lead.

Lineup announcements, starting pitcher confirmations, and recent team form are key catalysts that shift trader positioning before first pitch. Weather conditions, ballpark factors, and injury updates can also reshape early-game expectations. In-game momentum—early runs, defensive plays, or pitching changes—will drive sharp repricing during the first five innings themselves. Monitoring pregame news and live action helps traders stay ahead of market moves and adjust positions as new information emerges.