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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics - First 5 Innings Winner

Volume:
$17,180

A's -1.5 first 5 innings

 - Kalshi

A's -1.5 first 5 innings - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 15, 11:24 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

A's -1.5 first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,582
N/A
N/A
$4,671
Settled
Yes
kalshi

A's -2.5 first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,693
N/A
N/A
$2,314
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Athletics

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$9
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Pittsburgh -1.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,070
N/A
N/A
$4,049
Settled
No
kalshi

Pittsburgh -2.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,784
N/A
N/A
$1,135
Settled
No
polymarket

Pittsburgh Pirates

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This event group covers the outcome of the first 5 innings of the MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Oakland Athletics scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT. Markets track whether Pittsburgh wins, Oakland wins, or the game is tied after 5 complete innings.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses run-differential thresholds (>1.5 and >2.5 runs) to determine Yes resolution, while Polymarket uses simple head-to-head comparison (who is ahead or tied). These create non-overlapping outcome spaces for close games.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets are equivalent. A Pirates win by exactly 1 run resolves Yes on Kalshi only if it exceeds the 1.5-run threshold (it does not). On Polymarket, the same 1-run Pirates lead resolves to Pirates. Verify which platform's logic matches your thesis before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Run-differential market with four Yes conditions: Pittsburgh >1.5 runs, Pittsburgh >2.5 runs, A's >1.5 runs, A's >2.5 runs. Resolves Yes only if the margin exceeds the stated threshold. Key Quote: 'If Pittsburgh wins by more than 1.5 runs in the first 5 innings of the Pittsburgh vs A's professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jun 15, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Three-way categorical market: resolves to Pirates if Pirates lead after 5 innings, Athletics if A's lead, or Draw if tied. No run-differential thresholds; any lead counts. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Pittsburgh Pirates if the Pittsburgh Pirates is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to Athletics if the Athletics is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to Draw.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Athletics, scheduled for June 15 at 9:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the run differential at the end of the first five innings of the Pittsburgh vs Oakland game originally scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific team and margin threshold: outcomes resolve Yes if the designated team wins by more than the specified run margin (either 1.5 or 2.5 runs) in the first five innings. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on crowd-sourced pricing rather than traditional sportsbook models. Traders directly buy and sell shares tied to outcomes, meaning odds reflect aggregated belief rather than bookmaker margins. This market's prices update continuously as new information emerges, often moving faster than sportsbook lines during breaking news or injury announcements. Comparing this market to major sportsbooks can reveal value opportunities, though prediction market liquidity and traditional sports betting volume differ significantly.

Polymarket and Kalshi serve different trader bases and operate under distinct rule frameworks. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi adds a run-margin condition (over 2.5 runs), making it a narrower bet than Polymarket's simpler winner format. Liquidity depth, fee structures, and user demographics also drive pricing gaps. Arbitrage traders monitor these spreads, but differences can persist if one platform attracts stronger conviction on a particular side or if regulatory constraints limit capital flow between venues.

Key catalysts include roster updates, injury announcements, and weather forecasts affecting ball carry and pitcher performance. Starting pitcher confirmation and recent offensive trends—particularly early-inning scoring rates—often trigger sharp price moves. Betting line shifts at major sportsbooks can signal sharp money and influence prediction market traders. Game-day conditions like wind speed, humidity, and field dimensions also matter for a five-inning outcome. Close to game time, lineup announcements and bullpen availability typically drive final repricing.