TOTAL VOLUME:
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24H VOL:
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OPEN INTEREST:
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406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 4, 9:00 PM EST
Kalshi
A Mexico LMB baseball game between Piratas de Campeche and Conspiradores de Queretaro scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 9:00 PM EDT. The outcome will be determined by which team wins the matchup.
Resolution is based on the final result of the Mexico LMB game scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 9:00 PM EDT. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes, provided the reschedule occurs within two days of the original date. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than two days after the original date, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with established rules.
Prediction market odds reflect real-money commitments from traders who profit or lose based on accuracy, creating a powerful incentive to incorporate all available information. Analyst forecasts, by contrast, often rely on models, historical trends, and expert judgment but lack the same financial penalty for error. Markets typically aggregate dispersed knowledge more efficiently than individual analysts, though both can diverge when new data emerges. Comparing this market's odds to published expert predictions reveals where consensus aligns and where traders see value others may have missed.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for shares representing each possible outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective belief about the likelihood of that outcome, ranging from near-zero to near-100 cents. As new information surfaces or trader sentiment shifts, prices adjust in real time. You can buy shares at the ask price to gain exposure or sell at the bid to exit your position, with your profit or loss determined by the final settlement price.
This market resolves around Jul 3, 2026, at which point the outcome will be confirmed and verified against credible public sources. Once the event concludes and the result is established, the market will settle automatically, and traders holding winning shares will receive their payout. The exact timing of settlement depends on when the outcome becomes verifiable and official. All traders are notified of the resolution process, and payouts are distributed according to the platform's standard procedures.
Key catalysts for this market include team roster changes, recent performance trends, injury announcements, and head-to-head historical records. Shifts in public sentiment, media coverage, or expert commentary can also influence trader positioning. Weather conditions, venue factors, or other contextual details specific to the matchup may prompt repricing as the event date approaches. Major developments in either team's season trajectory or unexpected news could trigger significant price swings, so monitoring sports news and team updates is essential for staying ahead of market movements.