TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 500K
- Kalshi
Above 500K - Kalshi
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 27, 2026
Closed: Sep 27, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of a specific music track during a defined week, measuring how widely it is consumed through streaming platforms. The focus is on quantifying audience engagement over a short period to gauge its popularity.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether the track “Picnic at the Cemetery” by Bella Poarch achieves various streaming thresholds within the U.S. during the week of September 18, 2026, to September 24, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific numerical threshold of streams—ranging from 50,000 to 10 million—that the track must surpass for the market to resolve as “Yes.” All outcomes are determined by data reported by Luminate’s API at 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday following the tracking week. Luminate acts as a neutral metrics provider and does not influence or endorse the markets. The structure allows participants to assess the likelihood of the track reaching different levels of success, from modest to exceptionally high, within a single week.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts for the Picnic at the Cemetery streams. However, prediction markets often aggregate diverse opinions and can reflect a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ effect, potentially offering a different perspective than individual analyst predictions. If initial viewership numbers are significantly higher or lower than anticipated by analysts, this market will likely reflect that shift in expectations before traditional media reports. Observing how this market moves in relation to any published forecasts can be a valuable exercise.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the Picnic at the Cemetery streams. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay or receive for a contract that pays out if a specific viewership threshold is met.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official streaming numbers for the first week of Picnic at the Cemetery are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total number of streams achieved during that period, as reported by the official streaming platform. It’s important to note that the exact definition of a ‘stream’ will be determined by the platform’s official metrics and will be the basis for determining the winning outcome in this market.
Several signals could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any pre-release marketing campaigns or promotional activities for the Picnic at the Cemetery streams could influence expectations and drive trading activity. Positive or negative reviews from early viewers or media outlets would also be a major catalyst. Unexpected technical issues with the streaming platform, or announcements regarding guest appearances, could also cause the odds to shift. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of potential viewership will likely impact the prices in this market.
