TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
90k+
- Polymarket
90k+ - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 21, 2026
Closed: Aug 21, 6:44 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This event group tracks the first-week pure album sales performance of Phoebe Bridgers' album 'Lost Weekend', released on August 14, 2026. The markets assess whether sales will exceed various thresholds or fall within specific ranges.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Threshold structure mismatch between binary threshold markets (Kalshi) and range bracket markets (Polymarket)Hero tip: Traders should note that Kalshi markets will resolve to Yes if sales meet or exceed any threshold, while Polymarket requires exact bracket placement. Exact sales figures resolving between brackets will resolve to the higher bracket on Polymarket.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: 10 binary markets resolving if sales exceed thresholds from 3K to 30K - any threshold met resolves to Yes
- Polymarket: 7 bracket markets resolving for sales ranges from <30K to 90K+, with exact figures resolving to higher bracket
Polymarket
Phoebe Bridgers's new album 'Lost Weekend' is expected to release August 14, 2026. This market will resolve according to the debut week sales for Phoebe Bridgers's album 'Lost Weekend', according to Hits Daily Double. If the album 'Lost Weekend' has not been released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the album's debut week sales fall exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the "HITS TOP 50" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming, specifically, the figure in the column titled "Activity", once the results are finalized for the album's debut week. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Kalshi
This event measures Phoebe Bridgers' 'Lost Weekend' album performance during the August 14-20, 2026 tracking week in the U.S. market. Resolution occurs on the Sunday following the tracking week using data from Luminate Data, LLC. The event features tiered thresholds for pure album sales (also called product sales), with separate markets corresponding to different sales levels: above 3,000, above 6,000, above 9,000, above 12,000, above 15,000, above 18,000, above 21,000, above 24,000, above 27,000, and above 30,000 units. Each threshold market resolves to Yes if the album exceeds that specific sales level during the designated tracking week, and No otherwise. Luminate Data, LLC serves as the neutral data provider and does not endorse or participate in market outcomes.