TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 4:43 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game, focusing on whether they achieve various levels of receiving yard milestones. It allows participants to speculate on player performance thresholds before the game takes place.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified player records the exact threshold of receiving yards or more in the designated game. If a player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. However, once the player takes at least one snap—even if that play is nullified by a penalty—the market settles definitively based on the actual receiving yards recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all thresholds for each player, ensuring consistent evaluation regardless of the yardage milestone being observed.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd approach, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by traders who are incentivized to express their best estimate of the true probability. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – the market tends to converge towards what many believe is the most accurate prediction, potentially diverging from fixed sportsbook offerings.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yard totals. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders can place limit orders or market orders to participate, and the price fluctuates based on supply and demand. The more traders believe a particular receiving yard total is likely, the higher the price of the corresponding contract will be.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage statistics for the game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final receiving yards for the players involved will be sourced from official NFL data and used to determine which contracts payout. The contracts will settle based on whether the actual total receiving yards fall above or below the specified contract levels, as determined by the official game statistics.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports for key wide receivers or tight ends would be a major catalyst, as their absence would directly affect the potential receiving yardage. Unexpected changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also influence passing game strategies and, consequently, receiving yard totals. Game-day news, like a change in defensive schemes or a key matchup advantage, could also drive movement in this market as traders react to new information.