TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 1:50 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting the margin of victory for either Philadelphia or Tennessee in the first quarter of their upcoming football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the bet to succeed.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential between Philadelphia and Tennessee during the first quarter of play in their game scheduled for September 20, 2026. For Philadelphia markets, a 'Yes' outcome occurs if Philadelphia leads by more than the specified point margin (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points). For Tennessee markets, a 'Yes' outcome occurs if Tennessee leads by more than the specified point margin (also ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points). No points scored after the first quarter conclude contribute to any market resolution. All markets are independent, and only the exact point differential thresholds defined in each market determine resolution.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of people believe a particular outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price on Kalshi will move accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts closer to the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders are constantly buying and selling contracts representing their beliefs about the 1st quarter spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price reflects the collective assessment of all participants, and is updated in real-time based on supply and demand for these contracts.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread in the first quarter of the game between Philadelphia and Tennessee will be used to determine whether the contracts predicting a positive or negative spread will pay out. The resolution will be based on the official result as reported by a trusted sports data source, and will be reflected in the final settlement of the contracts on Kalshi.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts could also impact expectations about the game’s style and scoring. Public sentiment, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, can also play a role. Finally, as the game approaches, any large trades on Kalshi itself could shift the price, especially if they indicate a strong conviction about a particular outcome.