TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

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30,097

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

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61%

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Philadelphia vs New York M
predict
kalshi

Philadelphia vs New York M

Volume:
$2,696,027

Philadelphia

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 27, 2026

Closed: Jun 26, 9:34 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Philadelphia

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,691,862
N/A
N/A
$1,163,718
Settled
Yes
predict

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$1,928
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

New York M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,002,236
N/A
N/A
$632,890
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Intro

This market tracks whether the Philadelphia Phillies will defeat the New York Mets in their scheduled MLB matchup. Across Predict and Kalshi, the consensus probability for a Philadelphia victory stands at 86.0%. The resolution source is the official outcome of the professional baseball game originally scheduled for June 26, 2026 at 7:10 PM EDT. Watch for the game's completion on June 26, 2026, which will determine the final market resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution logic is internally contradictory: both Philadelphia winning and New York M winning resolve to Yes, making the market logically unresolvable as a binary outcome. Predict provides coherent, mutually exclusive outcomes with comprehensive edge case handling.Hero tip: Do not trade the Kalshi market in its current form—it cannot be resolved. Predict's market is the only viable option. Contact Kalshi support to report the logical error before market expiration.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary Yes resolution for either team winning creates logical impossibility. Both mutually exclusive outcomes map to the same resolution state (Yes). No edge case provisions for postponement, cancellation, or tie scenarios.
  • Predict: Mutually exclusive team-name resolution (Philadelphia Phillies or New York Mets). Comprehensive edge case handling: postponed games stay open, canceled games without makeup resolve 50-50, ties resolve 50-50. Official MLB statistics as primary source, with credible reporting fallback after 24 hours.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the final outcome of the Philadelphia vs New York M professional baseball game originally scheduled for June 26, 2026 at 7:10 PM EDT. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than two days away, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with the rules.

Predict

In the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets, scheduled for June 26 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game. This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price events differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, often adjusting for sharp money and public bias. Prediction markets, by contrast, rely on decentralized trader consensus—prices emerge from continuous buying and selling without a house edge. This market's odds on Kalshi and Predict reflect pure supply and demand, often converging toward true probability faster than traditional sportsbooks, especially as event time approaches.

Kalshi and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, all of which influence price discovery. Kalshi may draw more retail volume or specialized sports traders, while Predict might see institutional participation or different risk appetites. Order flow timing, platform UI design, and promotional incentives also create temporary mispricings. These gaps typically narrow as arbitrageurs exploit them, but they can persist if traders on one venue hold stronger convictions or face different constraints.