TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 4, 10:55 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks runs batted in (RBIs) by individual players during the Philadelphia vs Kansas City baseball game on July 4, 2026. An RBI is credited when a batter's action results in a run scoring.
Settlement is based on player participation status and plate appearance activity. Players must be in the starting lineup and record at least one plate appearance for the market to settle on actual performance. If a player is scratched or not in the starting lineup, the market resolves to fair market price. Players who enter the game as pinch hitters do not count toward settlement. If a starting player does not record a plate appearance, the market also resolves to fair market price. Once these participation criteria are met, settlement is determined by the RBIs recorded during the game.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. This market may show different implied probabilities than traditional sportsbooks, particularly as new information emerges or as the event draws closer. Comparing the two can reveal where professional traders and casual bettors disagree on RBI outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different RBI outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the collective confidence of active traders, with shares ranging from near-zero to near-100 cents. As traders place bids and offers, the market price adjusts continuously, allowing new information and shifting sentiment to be reflected in real time. This dynamic pricing ensures the odds stay responsive throughout the trading window.
This market resolves around Jul 5, 2026, once the Philadelphia vs Kansas City game concludes and final statistics are available. The outcome will be verified against credible public sources to confirm the combined RBI total. Resolution depends on the official box score and league records, ensuring accuracy and fairness for all traders. Once verified, the market will settle and payouts will be distributed according to the winning outcome.
Several factors could shift odds in this market before it resolves. Roster changes, injury announcements, or lineup adjustments for either team may alter expectations around offensive production. Weather conditions at game time, bullpen availability, and recent offensive trends can all influence RBI projections. Breaking news about player availability or strategic changes could prompt traders to reassess their positions. As game time approaches and more information becomes public, expect increased trading activity and price volatility.