TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 8:31 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting which Chicago player or unit will score the first touchdown in an upcoming professional football game against Philadelphia. Each market is tied to a specific player or the defense, with outcomes determined by game events.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified Chicago player or unit scores the first touchdown of the game. If the designated player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price before the game starts. Once the player takes a snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves according to whether that player scores the first touchdown. If Chicago fails to score any touchdowns during the game, the 'No Chicago Touchdown' market resolves to Yes, and all individual player markets resolve to No. These rules apply uniformly across all player-specific and defensive unit markets for this event.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals freely trading contracts, potentially leading to odds that more accurately reflect the true probability of the event occurring. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply variations in how each assesses the likelihood of the first Chicago touchdown.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the probability of the first Chicago touchdown being scored by either team. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the implied probability of the event. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts predicting the outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing reflects the collective intelligence of the market participants and their evolving expectations.
This market resolves around Sep 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on which team scores the first touchdown in the Philadelphia versus Chicago game. The official game results will be used to determine the winning outcome. The platform will verify the result against credible public sources to ensure accuracy and transparency in the resolution process.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Philadelphia or Chicago offense would likely cause shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if adverse conditions are expected, could also influence the market, potentially favoring a running game and altering touchdown probabilities. Furthermore, any significant shifts in public perception or expert analysis regarding the teams' offensive capabilities could drive trading activity and move this market.