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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the first 5 innings: Phillies or Nationals?

Volume:
$136,657

Washington wins first 5 innings

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 26, 2026

Closed: Jun 25, 8:24 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Washington wins first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$24,311
N/A
N/A
$20,236
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Washington Nationals

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Philadelphia wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$105,720
N/A
N/A
$96,513
Settled
No
polymarket

Philadelphia Phillies

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,626
N/A
N/A
$6,499
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers prediction markets on the outcome of the first 5 innings of the MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals scheduled for June 25, 2026 at 6:45 PM EDT. Markets track which team is winning (or if tied) at the conclusion of the 5th inning.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution logic is internally contradictory: all three mutually exclusive outcomes (Washington win, tie, Philadelphia win) resolve to Yes, rendering the market non-functional. Polymarket uses proper mutually exclusive outcomes (Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals, Draw) with coherent tie handling.Hero tip: Kalshi's market is fundamentally broken and should not be traded. Use Polymarket's three-outcome structure instead. Confirm you are trading the correct Polymarket sub-market (winner or tie) before entry. Monitor for postponements and check MLB.com for makeup game scheduling.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: All three possible outcomes (Washington win, tie, Philadelphia win) resolve to Yes. Quote: 'If Washington wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Philadelphia and Washington tie... then the market resolves to Yes. If Philadelphia wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates logical impossibility where every outcome is identical.
  • Polymarket: Three separate linked markets with mutually exclusive outcomes: Philadelphia Phillies (if leading after 5 innings), Washington Nationals (if leading after 5 innings), Draw (if tied after 5 innings). Includes postponement protocol (remains open until 5th inning completed) and cancellation protocol (50-50 split if no makeup game). Quote: 'This market will resolve to Philadelphia Phillies if... winning... Washington Nationals if... winning... Draw if... tied.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals, scheduled for June 25 at 6:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

The Philadelphia vs Washington game on June 25, 2026 at 6:45 PM EDT is evaluated at the end of the fifth inning to determine which team leads or if the score is tied. Philadelphia wins the first five innings if it has more runs than Washington; Washington wins the first five innings if it has more runs than Philadelphia; and the Tie outcome resolves to Yes if both teams have scored equal runs through five innings. If the score is tied after five innings, only the Tie strike resolves to Yes and all team strikes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and resolves after the rescheduled game completes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price events differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract a margin, while prediction markets rely on trader consensus and continuous price discovery. This market reflects what thousands of participants collectively believe will happen, often incorporating specialized knowledge faster than traditional oddsmakers update their lines. Comparing this market's odds to major sportsbook lines can reveal arbitrage opportunities or signal where smart money is positioning ahead of first-pitch action.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which naturally produces price variation. Polymarket and Kalshi may also settle outcomes using slightly different verification timelines or data sources, creating temporary gaps as new information emerges. Regulatory frameworks and platform-specific rules can influence how aggressively traders position during the final innings. These differences typically narrow as the game concludes, but savvy traders monitor the spread to identify mispricings or platform-specific edges.

Lineup announcements, starting pitcher health updates, and recent offensive performance trends typically drive early price movement in this market. Weather conditions, ballpark factors, and bullpen availability can shift trader expectations for first-inning scoring patterns. Breaking news about key player injuries or roster changes often triggers sharp repricing minutes before game time. As the game begins, each run scored or defensive play will incrementally adjust odds, with significant momentum swings possible if either team scores early or a pitcher dominates the opening frames.