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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers - First 5 Innings Winner

Volume:
$153,374

Tie

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 14, 2026

Closed: Jun 13, 8:49 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tie

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$16,360
N/A
N/A
$11,388
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
20¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Milwaukee wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$99,773
N/A
N/A
$84,433
Settled
No
polymarket

Milwaukee Brewers

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Philadelphia wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$37,237
N/A
N/A
$27,965
Settled
No
polymarket

Philadelphia Phillies

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers prediction markets on the outcome of the first 5 innings of the MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers scheduled for June 13, 2026 at 7:10 PM EDT. Markets resolve based on which team is ahead (or if tied) at the conclusion of the 5th inning.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution logic is logically contradictory and non-falsifiable. All three mutually exclusive outcomes (Philadelphia win, Milwaukee win, tie) are mapped to Yes, making the market unresolvable and meaningless. Polymarket correctly structures three separate binary markets with mutually exclusive outcomes.Hero tip: Do not trade the Kalshi market. Its structure guarantees a Yes resolution regardless of game result, eliminating all predictive value. Polymarket's three-way structure is the only resolvable format for this event.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Single market with three resolution rules, all mapping to Yes. Resolves Yes if Philadelphia wins, Milwaukee wins, or if they tie. This creates a logical impossibility where every possible game outcome produces the same market result (Yes), making the market non-falsifiable.
  • Polymarket: Three separate binary markets with mutually exclusive outcomes. One market resolves Philadelphia Phillies if Phillies lead after 5 innings, one resolves Milwaukee Brewers if Brewers lead, one resolves Draw if tied. Each outcome is distinct and resolvable.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers, scheduled for June 13 at 7:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Milwaukee Brewers" if the Milwaukee Brewers is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

This event resolves based on the score at the end of the first five innings of the Philadelphia vs Milwaukee professional baseball game scheduled for June 13, 2026 at 7:10 PM EDT. Three outcomes are available: Philadelphia wins, Milwaukee wins, or the teams tie. If the score is tied after five innings, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes and both team outcomes resolve to No. If the score is not tied, the winning team's outcome resolves to Yes and the other outcomes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and resolves after the rescheduled game concludes, within two days of the original scheduled date.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price events differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets rely on trader consensus and arbitrage to converge on fair value. In this market, the decentralized pricing on Polymarket and Kalshi may diverge from traditional betting lines because traders can enter and exit positions continuously, and there is no house margin built into the odds. Comparing these prices to your sportsbook can reveal value opportunities, especially when one venue underestimates early-inning volatility or team performance trends.

Polymarket and Kalshi may show different odds on this market for several reasons. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and risk appetites, leading to natural price discovery delays. Polymarket may weight recent Phillies form more heavily, while Kalshi could reflect sharper action on Milwaukee's pitching matchup. Funding rates, withdrawal policies, and platform-specific incentives also influence how quickly traders react to new information. Monitoring both venues helps you spot arbitrage opportunities and understand which factors different communities prioritize when pricing early-inning outcomes.

Several catalysts can shift odds before the game begins and during early innings. Injury announcements, bullpen availability, and last-minute lineup changes typically trigger repricing on both platforms. Weather conditions—wind direction, temperature, and humidity—affect ball carry and can favor one team's offensive profile. Starting pitcher performance data, recent head-to-head trends, and travel fatigue from the previous game also influence trader positioning. Once play starts, early runs, defensive errors, and pitching changes in the first three innings will drive real-time volatility as traders update their edge estimates on the five-inning outcome.