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$113,466,932
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2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 9:11 PM EST
Kalshi
This market asks whether the Chicago Bears will win the first quarter of their game against the Philadelphia Eagles by more than 3.5 points. Currently, the probability of this outcome occurring on Kalshi is 75.0%. Resolution will be determined based on the outcome of the first quarter of the PHI Eagles vs CHI Bears Pro Football game originally scheduled for Sep 28, 2026, as reported by the official game results. Keep an eye on the game itself, as the market will resolve based on the first quarter score and will be finalized by the resolution date of 2026-09-29.
These markets resolve based on the point differential between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Chicago Bears exclusively during the first quarter of their game scheduled for September 28, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold that the winning team must exceed for the market to resolve as 'Yes'. If the Philadelphia Eagles win the first quarter by more than 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points, the corresponding markets resolve to 'Yes'. Conversely, if the Chicago Bears win the first quarter by more than 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points, the relevant markets resolve to 'Yes'. Only points scored in the first quarter count toward these outcomes, and no markets resolve unless the specified margin is strictly exceeded.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of informed traders, and can sometimes differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the same data. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information becomes available or as the event draws closer. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the Eagles-Bears 1st quarter spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on their analysis, news, and expectations, leading to a dynamic price discovery process. The more a particular outcome is bought, the higher its price becomes, and vice versa. This creates a real-time assessment of the potential result.
This market resolves around Sep 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread in the first quarter of the Eagles versus Bears game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official data sources and will reflect the actual performance of the teams during that specific period of the game. Traders will then be paid out or have their funds returned based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual result.
Several factors could influence the Eagles-Bears 1st quarter spread market. Any news regarding key player injuries, changes in coaching strategies, or even weather conditions could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected reports about team morale or internal conflicts could also play a role. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and drive price movements. Public opinion shifts, as reflected in polls or analyst predictions, may also contribute to changes in this market’s pricing.