TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 9:57 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether the Chicago Bears will win the first half of their game against the Philadelphia Eagles by more than 2.5 points. Currently, the probability of the Bears achieving this on Kalshi is 97.0%. Resolution will be determined based on the scoring differential at halftime of the PHI Eagles vs CHI Bears Pro Football game originally scheduled for Sep 28, 2026, as reported by Kalshi. Keep an eye on the game itself, as this market will resolve based on the outcome of the first half by September 29, 2026 – the estimated date for completion of the game and subsequent market settlement.
All markets resolve based exclusively on the point differential between the Philadelphia Eagles and Chicago Bears during the first half of their Pro Football game scheduled for September 28, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the specified team wins the first half by more than the designated point margin—ranging from 2.5 to 13.5 points, depending on the market. Only points scored in the first half are considered; the final game result or any overtime periods are irrelevant. Each market has a unique threshold, allowing participants to speculate on varying degrees of dominance either team might achieve before halftime. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for a profit margin, while this market is driven purely by traders’ beliefs. If a significant number of people believe the Eagles will cover, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase, potentially moving closer to—or even beyond—what sportsbooks are offering. However, it's not uncommon to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public opinion shifts. It’s a good way to compare collective intelligence against expert analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the first half of the Eagles-Bears game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the latest collective assessment. Essentially, the market 'discovers' the most likely outcome based on the aggregated decisions of all traders.
This market resolves around Sep 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first half spread of the Eagles-Bears game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the league, and contracts will pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the range represented by the purchased contracts. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect spread will forfeit their investment. The final result will be clearly displayed on Kalshi.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Eagles or the Bears would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also shift the market. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could affect trader sentiment. Public perception, driven by expert analysis and media coverage, can also play a role in how this market behaves leading up to the game’s kickoff and the first half’s conclusion.