TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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PGA Tour: The Open Championship Top 5
kalshi
polymarket

PGA Tour: The Open Championship Top 5

Volume:
$2,172,106

Scottie Scheffler

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 19, 2026

Closed: Jul 19, 4:14 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Scottie Scheffler

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$326,906
N/A
N/A
$149,476
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Scottie Scheffler

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,114
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Tommy Fleetwood

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$102,479
N/A
N/A
$51,977
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Tommy Fleetwood

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,139
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Cameron Young

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100,526
N/A
N/A
$60,465
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Cameron Young

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,650
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Sam Burns

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$66,534
N/A
N/A
$37,012
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Sam Burns

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,670
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ryan Fox

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$39,443
N/A
N/A
$23,377
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ryan Fox

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,052
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Jackson Koivun

View
7%
Yes 7¢No 93¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

Zach Johnson

View
5%
Yes 5¢No 95¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

Tiger Woods

View
2%
Yes 2¢No 98¢
100¢
N/A
$34
N/A
N/A
$34
Settled
No
kalshi

Bryson DeChambeau

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$222,581
N/A
N/A
$141,278
Settled
No
polymarket

Bryson DeChambeau

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,888
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ludvig Aberg

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$80,646
N/A
N/A
$64,347
Settled
No
kalshi

Rory McIlroy

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$67,487
N/A
N/A
$50,304
Settled
No
polymarket

Rory McIlroy

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,914
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Justin Thomas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$48,204
N/A
N/A
$43,272
Settled
No
polymarket

Justin Thomas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,127
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Si Woo Kim

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$46,041
N/A
N/A
$25,960
Settled
No
polymarket

Si Woo Kim

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tom Kim

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$45,448
N/A
N/A
$45,033
Settled
No
polymarket

Tom Kim

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$465
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jon Rahm

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$45,331
N/A
N/A
$41,611
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 265

Intro

This market group tracks whether individual professional golfers will finish in the top 5, including ties, at the 2026 The Open Championship. Hideki Matsuyama carries the leading consensus probability of 28.0% across aggregated data from Kalshi and Polymarket, with resolution determined by official PGA Tour results published at pgatour.com. Watch for the tournament conclusion on July 19, 2026, when final leaderboard positions will settle all related markets.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical core logic: top 5 finish (including ties) at 2026 The Open Championship resolves YES; all other outcomes resolve NO. Official PGA Tour results are the authoritative source for both.Primary resolution logic: Official PGA Tour website (pgatour.com) - final tournament results

Core resolution logic:

  • Player finishes in positions 1-5 (including ties) at the 2026 The Open Championship = YES
  • Player finishes outside top 5 or does not compete = NO
  • Ties are explicitly included in the top 5 definition
  • Resolution source is official PGA Tour published results

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Deadline for Result Announcement: Polymarket specifies July 25, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET as the deadline for result announcement; if results are not published by this time, Polymarket resolves to NO. Kalshi does not specify an explicit deadline but implies standard tournament resolution timing. This creates a minor timing divergence but does not affect the core resolution logic if results are announced on schedule.
  • Ties in Top 5: Both platforms explicitly state that ties are included. A player tied for 5th place resolves to YES.
  • Player Withdrawal or Non-Participation: If a player does not compete or withdraws, they do not finish in the top 5 and the market resolves to NO.
  • Roster Differences: Kalshi lists 164 players; Polymarket lists 102 players. Some players appear on only one platform (e.g., John Daly, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson on Kalshi only; these are retired or inactive players unlikely to compete in 2026). Resolution logic is identical for all listed players on either platform.
Timing: Resolution occurs after the 2026 The Open Championship concludes and official PGA Tour results are published. Polymarket enforces a hard deadline of July 25, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET for result announcement.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 5 at the 2026 The Open Championship tournament, including ties. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If final results are not announced by July 25, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).

Kalshi

Each golfer's market resolves Yes if that player finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Open Championship. If a golfer forfeits, withdraws, or does not participate prior to teeing off, the market resolves to Fair Market Price. If a golfer forfeits or withdraws after teeing off, the market resolves to No. Ties are included in the top-5 determination, meaning a golfer tied for fifth place counts as a top-5 finisher.

Frequently asked questions

The Open Championship top 5 finishers market aggregates prediction contracts across Polymarket and Kalshi, allowing traders to wager on which golfers will finish in the top five at golf's oldest major championship. Each platform hosts individual outcome contracts tied to specific players. Traders buy or sell shares based on their conviction that a given competitor will land in the top five when the tournament concludes. This market reflects real-time consensus pricing from the prediction community, with volume of $2,172,106 across both venues. By tracking these contracts side by side, you can spot which contenders the crowd favors most and compare how conviction shifts as the event approaches.

Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price outcomes differently. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets reflect pure supply and demand from traders with real money at stake. Because prediction markets reward accuracy and punish poor forecasts, prices often converge toward true probability faster than sportsbook lines. Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi compete to identify mispriced outcomes, creating incentives for sharper pricing. However, sportsbooks benefit from deeper liquidity and professional risk management. Comparing the two can reveal arbitrage opportunities or consensus gaps worth investigating before placing a wager.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, regulatory frameworks, and liquidity pools, all of which influence how prices settle. Polymarket and Kalshi may have varying fee structures, user bases, and risk tolerances, causing the same outcome to trade at different odds on each venue. Timing also matters: a contract may move faster on one platform if news breaks and traders there react before the other venue. Additionally, platform-specific rules around order types and settlement can create temporary mispricings. Savvy traders monitor both sites to spot these gaps and capitalize on discrepancies before they close.

Several catalysts can shift odds before the championship begins. Injury announcements or withdrawals will crater a player's odds instantly, while surprise form or a recent tournament win can boost conviction in a contender. Weather forecasts closer to the event date may favor certain playing styles, prompting traders to reassess. Media narratives around momentum, course fit, and historical performance also drive repricing. As the tournament unfolds, live leaderboard updates will trigger sharp moves in contracts for players climbing or falling out of contention. Late-round drama, particularly on Sunday, can create volatile swings as traders hedge or double down based on real-time positioning.