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$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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PGA Tour: FedEx St. Jude Championship Third Round Leader
polymarket
kalshi

PGA Tour: FedEx St. Jude Championship Third Round Leader

Volume:
$2,009,598

Scottie Scheffler

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 16, 2026

Closed: Aug 15, 6:19 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Scottie Scheffler

View
100%
31%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$533,506
N/A
N/A
$305,203
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Scottie Scheffler

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$510
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Viktor Hovland

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$353,571
N/A
N/A
$245,576
Settled
No
polymarket

Viktor Hovland

View
0%
50%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Sungjae Im

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$265,808
N/A
N/A
$188,454
Settled
No
polymarket

Sung-Jae Im

View
0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Sam Burns

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$165,931
N/A
N/A
$122,510
Settled
No
polymarket

Sam Burns

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tommy Fleetwood

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$106,749
N/A
N/A
$68,436
Settled
No
polymarket

Tommy Fleetwood

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ludvig Aberg

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$96,837
N/A
N/A
$66,606
Settled
No
polymarket

Ludvig Aberg

View
0%
50%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Chris Gotterup

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$41,686
N/A
N/A
$32,637
Settled
No
polymarket

Chris Gotterup

View
0%
50%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Wyndham Clark

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$37,470
N/A
N/A
$37,145
Settled
No
polymarket

Wyndham Clark

View
0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Justin Thomas

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$29,140
N/A
N/A
$28,240
Settled
No
polymarket

Justin Thomas

View
0%
50%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Brian Harman

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$28,417
N/A
N/A
$28,408
Settled
No
polymarket

Brian Harman

View
0%
50%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jordan Spieth

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$28,095
N/A
N/A
$28,013
Settled
No
polymarket

Jordan Spieth

View
0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Hideki Matsuyama

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$27,379
N/A
N/A
$23,977
Settled
No
polymarket

Hideki Matsuyama

View
0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Nicolas Echavarria

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$24,908
N/A
N/A
$24,908
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 159

Intro

This market tracks which golfer will lead the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship after the third round. The aggregated consensus probability for the leading outcome stands at 99.0%, combining data from Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution based on official results published by the PGA Tour or governing body. Watch for the end of the third round on August 16, 2026, which will determine the final leaderboard and market resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets use identical resolution criteria and tie-breaking procedures for determining the third-round leader.Primary resolution logic: Official results published by the PGA Tour or governing body

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolve to the player with the lowest cumulative score to par after Round 3
  • Apply tie-breakers in sequence: Round 3 score, Round 2 score, Round 1 score, eagles, birdies, bogeys, alphabetical order of last names
  • Resolve to "Other" if tournament is cancelled/postponed beyond August 29, 2026 or if no official Round 3 leader is declared by that time

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tournament Cancellation: If the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship is cancelled, postponed after August 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if an official Round 3 leader has not been declared within that timeframe, the market resolves to "Other"
  • Persistent Tie: If all tie-breakers fail to produce a winner, resolution defaults to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically
Timing: Resolution occurs immediately after the official declaration of the Round 3 leader by the PGA Tour or governing body, no later than August 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ETOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the player that finishes Round 3 of the main tournament at the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship with the lowest cumulative score to par. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 3. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 2. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 1. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more eagles thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records more birdies thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records fewer bogeys thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship is cancelled, postponed after August 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if an official Round 3 leader has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the event organizer or governing body.

Kalshi

Each market corresponds to a specific golfer, and the outcome resolves based on whether that golfer is the sole leader at the end of Round 3. If multiple participants share the lead, "Yes" positions receive a prorated payout of $1 divided by the number of tied leaders (rounded down to the nearest cent), while "No" positions receive the remainder of the stake pool. The event organizer clarifies that they hold no official affiliation with the PGA, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the FedEx St. Jude third-round leader market aggregates real-time data from multiple venues, showing how traders price the likelihood of each golfer leading after round three. It displays consensus probabilities, volume of $2,009,598, and 24-hour volume of $1,656,202 across platforms. This view lets users compare expectations and spot shifts as the tournament progresses, with updates reflecting new bets and market movements.

Key signals that could shift this market include injury updates, weather delays affecting stroke counts, and live scoring bursts during Thursday’s rounds. A sudden surge by a longshot or misstep by a favorite may cause rapid probability swings, especially as Friday’s leaderboard tightens. Traders also watch practice round performances and equipment changes, as small adjustments sometimes preview dramatic moves under tournament pressure.