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406,065

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PGA Tour: FedEx St. Jude Championship First Round Leader
kalshi
polymarket

PGA Tour: FedEx St. Jude Championship First Round Leader

Volume:
$11,904,310

Michael Thorbjornsen

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 14, 2026

Closed: Aug 13, 9:20 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Michael Thorbjornsen

View
100%
70%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$48,897
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Michael Thorbjornsen

View
20%
18%
Yes 20¢No 80¢
100¢
N/A
$346,433
N/A
N/A
$215,440
Settled
No
kalshi

Michael Kim

View
20%
19%
Yes 20¢No 80¢
100¢
N/A
$821,381
N/A
N/A
$563,555
Settled
No
polymarket

Michael Kim

View
0%
31%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,327
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jake Knapp

View
20%
19%
Yes 20¢No 80¢
100¢
N/A
$647,761
N/A
N/A
$284,605
Settled
No
polymarket

Jake Knapp

View
0%
32%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,703
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jordan Spieth

View
20%
Yes 20¢No 80¢
100¢
N/A
$476,948
N/A
N/A
$252,779
Settled
No
polymarket

Jordan Spieth

View
0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,952
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Kurt Kitayama

View
20%
18%
Yes 20¢No 80¢
100¢
N/A
$330,931
N/A
N/A
$167,456
Settled
No
polymarket

Kurt Kitayama

View
0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,287
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Viktor Hovland

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$635,123
N/A
N/A
$449,942
Settled
No
polymarket

Viktor Hovland

View
0%
34%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Scottie Scheffler

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$625,181
N/A
N/A
$554,725
Settled
No
polymarket

Scottie Scheffler

View
0%
37%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Sam Burns

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$542,610
N/A
N/A
$445,445
Settled
No
polymarket

Sam Burns

View
0%
33%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tommy Fleetwood

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$466,308
N/A
N/A
$342,952
Settled
No
polymarket

Tommy Fleetwood

View
0%
33%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Matt Fitzpatrick

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$331,756
N/A
N/A
$249,818
Settled
No
polymarket

Matt Fitzpatrick

View
0%
34%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Hideki Matsuyama

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$305,439
N/A
N/A
$304,523
Settled
No
polymarket

Hideki Matsuyama

View
0%
34%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Cameron Young

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$292,227
N/A
N/A
$269,930
Settled
No
polymarket

Cameron Young

View
0%
31%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jackson Koivun

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$276,257
N/A
N/A
$275,726
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 159

Intro

This market tracks which golfer will lead after the first round of the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship. The aggregated consensus probability for Michael Thorbjornsen to lead after the first round stands at 94.8%, based on data from Kalshi and Polymarket, with resolution determined by official PGA Tour results. Watch for the tournament's first round conclusion on August 16, 2026, which will set the final leaderboard and resolve this market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets use identical tie-breaking procedures and rely on the same official PGA Tour results for resolution.Primary resolution logic: Official PGA Tour results

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolve based on the player with the lowest cumulative score to par after Round 1
  • Apply PGA Tour tie-breakers: back 9 score, eagles, birdies, bogeys, alphabetical order of last names
  • If tournament is canceled or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, resolve to "Other"

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tournament Cancellation: If the event is canceled or postponed after August 29, 2026, all markets resolve to "Other"
  • Undeclared Leader: If an official Round 1 leader has not been declared by August 29, 2026, markets resolve to "Other"
Timing: Markets resolve immediately after the official PGA Tour declaration of the Round 1 leader, or by August 29, 2026, if no leader is declaredOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the player that finishes Round 1 of the main tournament at the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship with the lowest cumulative score to par. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score on the back 9 of the first round. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more eagles thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records more birdies thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records fewer bogeys thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship is cancelled, postponed after August 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if an official Round 1 leader has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the event organizer or governing body.

Kalshi

Each market corresponds to a specific golfer, and the outcome is determined solely by whether that golfer is the sole leader at the end of Round 1. If the specified golfer is the sole leader, the market resolves to Yes. If multiple golfers are tied for the lead, the Yes position pays $1 divided by the number of tied participants (rounded down to the nearest cent), and the No position pays one minus that amount. These rules apply uniformly across all markets, ensuring consistent resolution based on the tournament's results.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the FedEx St. Jude first-round leader market aggregates real-time data from multiple platforms, showing how traders price the chances of each golfer taking the lead after the opening round. It displays total volume of $11,904,310 and 24-hour volume of $9,796,156, letting you compare sentiment across venues. This view highlights consensus and divergence, helping you spot where market interest is concentrated ahead of the tournament’s first day.

On Polymarket, this market reflects trader sentiment through dynamic pricing, often showing sharper movements than traditional sportsbook lines. Prediction markets such as this one aggregate information from a global user base, which can create price differences compared to sportsbooks that set odds based on broader public betting patterns and risk management. The gap between the two can vary widely, especially as tournament conditions shift. For the FedEx St. Jude first-round leader market, these differences may highlight under-the-radar insights or risk assessments unique to each platform’s participant pool.

News about player injuries, weather delays, or practice-round performances can shift this market significantly before resolution. Strong showing in recent events or changes to betting volumes on either platform may also create momentum. As the tournament approaches, any update that alters perceptions of golfers’ early-round capabilities can cause rapid price adjustments, especially on platforms with thinner order books.