TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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PGA Tour: BMW Championship Third Round Leader
polymarket
kalshi

PGA Tour: BMW Championship Third Round Leader

Volume:
$1,629,045

Wyndham Clark

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 23, 2026

Closed: Aug 22, 6:49 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Wyndham Clark

View
100%
60%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$347,197
N/A
N/A
$182,434
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wyndham Clark

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Patrick Cantlay

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$266,427
N/A
N/A
$243,770
Settled
No
polymarket

Patrick Cantlay

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Chris Gotterup

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$164,451
N/A
N/A
$138,948
Settled
No
polymarket

Chris Gotterup

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Scottie Scheffler

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$161,380
N/A
N/A
$120,803
Settled
No
polymarket

Scottie Scheffler

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Gary Woodland

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$160,147
N/A
N/A
$124,978
Settled
No
polymarket

Gary Woodland

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Rory McIlroy

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$134,616
N/A
N/A
$104,228
Settled
No
polymarket

Rory McIlroy

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

J.J. Spaun

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$110,479
N/A
N/A
$87,961
Settled
No
polymarket

J.J. Spaun

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Sungjae Im

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$97,971
N/A
N/A
$80,499
Settled
No
kalshi

Michael Thorbjornsen

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$56,079
N/A
N/A
$46,968
Settled
No
polymarket

Michael Thorbjornsen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Collin Morikawa

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$41,639
N/A
N/A
$29,202
Settled
No
polymarket

Collin Morikawa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Viktor Hovland

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$21,863
N/A
N/A
$21,863
Settled
No
polymarket

Viktor Hovland

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Justin Thomas

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,144
N/A
N/A
$15,039
Settled
No
polymarket

Justin Thomas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Maverick McNealy

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,160
N/A
N/A
$8,800
Settled
No
polymarket

Maverick McNealy

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 121

Intro

This market tracks which golfer will lead the 2026 BMW Championship after the third round, with the aggregated consensus probability showing 100.0%. The data is aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi, and resolution will be based on official PGA Tour results. The outcome will be determined by the tournament's official standings following the third round's conclusion. Watch for updates as the event window closes on September 6, 2026, which will set the final results for settlement.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets resolve to the same player leading after Round 3 using identical tiebreaker procedures and cancellation rulesPrimary resolution logic: Official PGA Tour results

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolve to the player with lowest cumulative score to par after Round 3
  • Apply tiebreakers in order: Round 3 score, Round 2 score, Round 1 score, eagles, birdies, bogeys, alphabetical last name
  • If tournament cancelled or postponed after September 5, 2026, or no official leader declared by then, resolve to "Other"

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tournament Cancellation: If the 2026 BMW Championship is cancelled, postponed after September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if an official Round 3 leader has not been declared within that timeframe, the market resolves to "Other"
  • Persistent Tie: After applying all score-based tiebreakers, if still tied, resolve in favor of the player with more eagles, then more birdies, then fewer bogeys, then alphabetical order of last names
Timing: Resolution occurs immediately after the official PGA Tour declaration of the Round 3 leader, or by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if no declaration is madeOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the player that finishes Round 3 of the main tournament at the 2026 BMW Championship with the lowest cumulative score to par. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 3. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 2. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 1. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more eagles thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records more birdies thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records fewer bogeys thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 BMW Championship is cancelled, postponed after September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if an official Round 3 leader has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the event organizer or governing body.

Kalshi

Each market corresponds to a specific golfer, and the outcome is determined by whether that golfer is the sole leader at the end of Round 3 of the 2026 BMW Championship. If the designated golfer is the sole leader, the market resolves to 'Yes.' If multiple golfers are tied for the lead, 'Yes' positions receive a payout of $1 divided by the number of tied participants (rounded down to the nearest cent), while 'No' positions receive a payout of one minus the 'Yes' payout. These rules apply uniformly across all markets, ensuring consistent resolution based on the final standings after Round 3.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the BMW Championship third-round leader market aggregates real-time data from multiple platforms, showing how traders price the likelihood of each golfer leading after round three. It displays current probabilities, volume of $1,629,045 and 24-hour volume of $1,417,492, letting users compare sentiment across venues. This consolidated view helps participants spot trends and shifts as the tournament progresses, offering a clear snapshot of market dynamics for this specific prediction.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, pricing mechanisms and user bases differ, creating variance in how probabilities are set. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, differing liquidity levels or regional participation patterns can skew odds. Additionally, each platform may attract distinct types of traders—some more data-driven, others influenced by short-term news—leading to divergent assessments of who will lead after round three.

Key signals that could shift this market include real-time score updates after each round, weather interruptions or delays that affect player performance, and notable mistakes or birdie streaks by top contenders. Any sudden change in the leaderboard during round three — even a few strokes — may cause rapid adjustments in trader sentiment and probability splits across platforms.