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400,720

Markets across

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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PGA Tour: BMW Championship Second Round Leader
kalshi
polymarket

PGA Tour: BMW Championship Second Round Leader

Volume:
$4,246,200

Wyndham Clark

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 22, 2026

Closed: Aug 21, 6:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Wyndham Clark

View
100%
86%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$870,585
N/A
N/A
$509,606
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wyndham Clark

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Gary Woodland

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$616,335
N/A
N/A
$224,376
Settled
No
polymarket

Gary Woodland

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

J.J. Spaun

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$575,086
N/A
N/A
$184,520
Settled
No
polymarket

J.J. Spaun

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Chris Gotterup

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$281,028
N/A
N/A
$151,873
Settled
No
polymarket

Chris Gotterup

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Rory McIlroy

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$240,141
N/A
N/A
$153,702
Settled
No
polymarket

Rory McIlroy

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Sungjae Im

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$219,204
N/A
N/A
$143,135
Settled
No
kalshi

Michael Thorbjornsen

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$201,360
N/A
N/A
$182,994
Settled
No
polymarket

Michael Thorbjornsen

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ludvig Aberg

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$164,958
N/A
N/A
$154,280
Settled
No
polymarket

Ludvig Aberg

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Scottie Scheffler

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$163,772
N/A
N/A
$162,990
Settled
No
polymarket

Scottie Scheffler

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Matt Fitzpatrick

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$134,295
N/A
N/A
$111,949
Settled
No
polymarket

Matt Fitzpatrick

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jacob Bridgeman

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$126,655
N/A
N/A
$126,655
Settled
No
polymarket

Jacob Bridgeman

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Akshay Bhatia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$87,030
N/A
N/A
$86,937
Settled
No
polymarket

Akshay Bhatia

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ryo Hisatsune

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$69,259
N/A
N/A
$64,453
Settled
No
polymarket

Ryo Hisatsune

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 121

Intro

This market tracks which golfer will lead the 2026 BMW Championship after the second round, with the current aggregated consensus at 99.1%. The data is aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket, and will resolve based on official results published by the PGA Tour. Watch for the event window closing on August 23, 2026, which will determine the official leader after Round 2.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets resolve based on the same official leader after Round 2, using identical tie-breaking procedures and cancellation rules.Primary resolution logic: Official results published by the PGA Tour

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolve to 'Yes' for the market corresponding to the player who is the official leader after Round 2
  • Use PGA Tour's official tie-breaking procedure if multiple players are tied after Round 2
  • If the tournament is canceled or postponed after September 5, 2026, resolve all markets to 'No' (Polymarket) or 'Other' (Kalshi for the 'Any Other Player' market)

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tournament Cancellation: If the 2026 BMW Championship is canceled or postponed after September 5, 2026, all individual player markets resolve to 'No' on Polymarket. On Kalshi, the 'Any Other Player' market resolves to 'Yes' and all named player markets resolve to 'No'.
  • Unresolved Leader: If an official Round 2 leader has not been declared by September 5, 2026, Polymarket resolves all markets to 'Other'. Kalshi markets would resolve based on the same timeline but with platform-specific 'Other' handling.
Timing: Resolution occurs immediately after the official declaration of the Round 2 leader by the PGA Tour, or by September 5, 2026, if no leader is declared by then.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the player that finishes Round 2 of the main tournament at the 2026 BMW Championship with the lowest cumulative score to par. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 2. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 1. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more eagles thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records more birdies thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records fewer bogeys thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 BMW Championship is cancelled, postponed after September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if an official Round 2 leader has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the event organizer or governing body.

Kalshi

Each market corresponds to a specific golfer, resolving to "Yes" if that golfer is the sole leader at the end of Round 2. If multiple golfers are tied for the lead, "Yes" positions pay $1 divided by the number of tied leaders (rounded down), while "No" positions pay the complement to 1. All markets are independent and resolve exclusively based on the final leaderboard positions after Round 2, with no official affiliation to the PGA or its trademarks.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the BMW Championship second round leader market aggregates data across multiple venues, showing how traders price the likelihood of different golfers taking the lead after round two. It displays real-time volume of $4,246,200 and 24-hour volume of $4,175,890, letting you see where consensus stands and how sentiment shifts as the tournament unfolds.

On Polymarket, this market reflects trader sentiment through dynamic pricing, often showing sharper movements than traditional sportsbook lines. Prediction markets aggregate information from participants who buy and sell contracts based on their expectations for the BMW Championship second round leader, while sportsbooks set odds using a mix of historical data, player performance models, and risk management. The difference can be notable, especially when a surprise performer surges, as prediction markets may adjust faster to new information and volume of $4,246,200 can amplify price swings.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Market design and user bases drive pricing gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi attract different trader demographics and have distinct liquidity profiles, affecting how quickly odds adjust. For example, if a player gains momentum mid-round, Polymarket might react sooner due to higher volume of $4,175,890, while Kalshi could lag. Additionally, each platform's fee structure influences participation levels, which in turn shapes price discovery for this market.

Key signals that could shift probabilities in this market include early round performance, weather delays, injuries or withdrawals, and live scoring updates. Any sudden change in a top contender’s position or the introduction of new leaders can cause rapid adjustments in trader sentiment and market pricing before the round ends.