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Páfos FC vs. HNK Hajduk Split - First Team to Score
kalshi
polymarket

Who will score first in Páfos FC vs. HNK Hajduk Split?

Volume:
$345

HNK Hajduk Split

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 31, 2026

Closed: Jul 23, 4:50 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

HNK Hajduk Split

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HNK Hajduk Split

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Páfos FC

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Pafos FC

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

No Goal

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$300
N/A
N/A
$300
Settled
No
polymarket

Neither

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers the first team to score in a Europa League match between Páfos FC and HNK Hajduk Split. Two platforms offer markets on this outcome, but they differ significantly in scope, timing window, and scheduled match date.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct divergences exist: (1) Temporal scope mismatch—Kalshi includes extra time while Polymarket explicitly excludes it; (2) Scheduled match date discrepancy—Kalshi lists Jul 23, 2026 while Polymarket lists Jul 30, 2026.Hero tip: Before trading, confirm the official match date and time with UEFA. If the match reaches extra time, outcomes will diverge: Kalshi continues to track first scorer through extra time, while Polymarket resolves based only on the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Traders holding positions on both platforms face basis risk if the match is decided in extra time.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Covers the entire match including regulation, stoppage time, and any extra time periods. Resolves Yes for either team if they score first at any point during these phases. Scheduled for Jul 23, 2026. Key Quote: 'during the entire game (regulation, stoppage and any extra time periods)'
  • Polymarket: Covers only the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are explicitly excluded. Resolves to Neither if no goal is scored within this window. Scheduled for Jul 30, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. Key Quote: 'This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming match between Páfos FC and HNK Hajduk Split, scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Páfos FC" if Páfos FC are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "HNK Hajduk Split" if HNK Hajduk Split are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by which team records the first goal during the entire match, encompassing regulation time, stoppage time, and any extra time periods. If the first goal scored is an own goal, the market resolves based on the team officially awarded credit for that goal. The match in question is the professional Europa League soccer game between HNK Hajduk Split and Pafos FC originally scheduled for July 23, 2026.

Frequently asked questions

The first-goal scorer market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi on which team will score first in the Páfos FC versus HNK Hajduk Split match. This market reflects real-time consensus from thousands of traders pricing the probability of each outcome. The dashboard displays current odds, historical price movements, and total volume of $345 across both venues, giving you a snapshot of how the prediction community views the likelihood of each team breaking the deadlock. These cross-platform signals often diverge from traditional sportsbook lines, offering an alternative lens on match expectations.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price the same event differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and manage risk, while prediction markets aggregate decentralized trader beliefs in real time. Prediction market prices often reflect sharper, less biased estimates because traders risk real capital on accuracy rather than volume. Comparing this market's odds to a traditional sportsbook can reveal where consensus diverges, sometimes highlighting value or hidden market sentiment. Many traders monitor both venues to spot arbitrage opportunities or validate their own thesis before committing capital.

Team news—injuries, suspensions, or lineup changes—can significantly shift odds, especially if a key striker or defender is ruled out. Pre-match analysis, recent form, and head-to-head records often trigger repricing as traders update their models. Weather conditions, pitch quality, and venue factors may also influence early-game dynamics and thus trader sentiment. Social media buzz, expert predictions, and late-breaking tactical announcements can spark volatility in the final hours. Large trader positions or sudden volume spikes sometimes signal informed moves. Monitoring team social channels and sports news outlets in the days leading up to kickoff will help you stay ahead of market-moving developments.