TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. Ferencvárosi TC
Volume:
$553,985
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the professional Europa League soccer match between PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad and Ferencvárosi TC scheduled for February 19, 2026. Markets across platforms assess the outcome (win/loss/draw) based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market structure is logically contradictory: all three mutually exclusive outcomes (Ludogorets win, tie, Ferencvarosi win) are stated to resolve to Yes, making the market unresolvable. Polymarket uses asymmetric cancellation logic: win/loss markets resolve No if canceled, but the draw market resolves Yes if canceled.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi markets until clarification is provided—the structure violates basic logic. On Polymarket, the draw market offers a hidden Yes resolution if the game is canceled, while win/loss markets resolve No; this creates a cancellation arbitrage. Monitor official UEFA sources for postponement vs. cancellation announcements, as the distinction determines resolution across platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Market structure claims all three outcomes (Ludogorets win, tie, Ferencvarosi win) resolve to Yes. This is logically impossible since only one outcome can occur. Quote: 'If Ludogorets wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Ferencvarosi wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets with consistent logic: Ludogorets win market resolves Yes/No, Ferencvarosi win market resolves Yes/No, draw market resolves Yes/No. Cancellation rule differs by market: win/loss resolve No if canceled; draw resolves Yes if canceled. Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to No' (win/loss) vs. 'this market will resolve to Yes' (draw).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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