TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 12, 12:34 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track how decisively either Penn State or Temple might lead after the first quarter of their college football game. Each outcome represents a different point margin threshold that must be exceeded for the market to settle positively.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the first quarter of play in the Penn State vs Temple college football game scheduled for September 12, 2026. For markets where Penn State wins by a specified margin (e.g., over 23.5, 19.5, etc.), the market resolves to Yes only if Penn State's lead at the end of the first quarter exceeds that exact point differential. Conversely, for markets where Temple wins by a specified margin (e.g., over 2.5, 3.5, etc.), the market resolves to Yes only if Temple's lead at the end of the first quarter exceeds that exact point differential. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve based on the official final result of that first quarter. If the game fails to start within the 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, meaning they settle at an equitable valuation rather than a binary Yes/No outcome. All markets are independent and evaluated strictly on first-quarter performance, with no consideration given to subsequent quarters or the final game result.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the 'wisdom of the crowd,' potentially incorporating information and perspectives not fully captured by traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbooks set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs, leading to price discovery driven by a diverse range of participants. It's common to see differences emerge as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts, though the two will often converge as the event approaches. Comparing these odds can offer a broader understanding of the perceived probabilities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the first quarter. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. Traders who believe Penn St. will win by more than the spread can buy contracts, while those who believe Temple will cover or win can sell. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts dynamically as traders interact, providing a real-time assessment of the expected outcome.
This market resolves around Sep 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official first quarter spread as determined by the official game statistics. The final score difference between Penn St. and Temple after the first quarter will be compared to the contract spreads to determine winning and losing contracts. The platform will verify the result against authoritative sources to ensure accuracy and finalize the market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Penn St. or Temple would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to affect the game conditions, could also shift the odds. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could influence trader sentiment. Public perception, driven by media coverage and expert analysis, can also contribute to price movements in this market.