TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 22, 5:06 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of two soccer teams in an upcoming professional league match. It focuses on the margin of victory for either team, determining outcomes based on specific goal differences. The result depends solely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different goal-differential scenarios in a professional Serie A soccer match between Parma Calcio and Cagliari, scheduled for August 22, 2026. Four distinct outcomes are considered, each tied to a specific margin of victory for either team. If Parma Calcio wins by more than 2.5 goals, or by more than 1.5 goals, that market resolves positively for Parma supporters. Conversely, if Cagliari secures a victory by more than 1.5 goals, or more than 2.5 goals, the corresponding market resolves positively for Cagliari backers. All resolutions are determined exclusively by the final score after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty kicks. The governing body’s official result is the sole basis for resolution, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any formal association with the league or its intellectual property.
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often differ from traditional sportsbook lines because they reflect the collective wisdom of informed traders rather than set bookmaker margins. In this market, traders actively buy and sell contracts based on their own analysis, which can lead to sharper or more volatile pricing compared to standard sportsbook spreads. The dynamic nature of Kalshi allows for rapid adjustments to new information, such as player injuries or tactical changes, often producing odds that diverge from fixed sportsbook lines.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders collectively set the odds through buying and selling contracts that represent possible point differentials. The current implied probability reflects the market’s view of which team is favored to win by a certain margin. Liquidity and trader activity drive price fluctuations, especially as new information about team form or player availability emerges in the run-up to the match.
This market resolves around Aug 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread will be calculated based on the official match result and score difference, closing all positions according to the rules set by Kalshi for this specific market.
Injuries to key players, changes in coaching strategy, or recent form for either team can all shift trader sentiment and move this market. Additionally, weather conditions, disciplinary actions, or even shifts in betting patterns on larger sportsbooks may influence how traders price the likely point spread in the days leading up to the match.