TOTAL VOLUME:

$108.6b

24H VOL:

$119,184,767

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,179,271,084

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,138,543,843

253,284

Markets across

24,627

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

1,999

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

43%

VS.

Kalshi:

57%

BETA
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
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Liquidity
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24h
7d
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Description

This event group covers the outcome of the UEFA Super Cup match between Paris Saint-Germain and Aston Villa scheduled for August 12, 2026. Markets resolve based on whether PSG wins, Aston Villa wins, or the match ends in a draw within 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms consistently resolve based on the official match result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with draws resolving positively for draw markets and cancellations resolving as draws.Primary resolution logic: Official UEFA match statistics or credible reporting consensus

Core resolution logic:

  • Markets resolve based on the official match result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time
  • Draws resolve positively for draw markets
  • Cancellations resolve as draws

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Postponement: Markets remain open until the game is completed
  • Cancellation: Draw markets resolve as Yes; win markets resolve as No
Timing: Resolution occurs after the official match conclusion, with a 2-hour window for official statistics or credible reporting consensusOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming UEFA Super Cup game, scheduled for Wednesday, August 12, 2026 between Paris Saint-Germain and Aston Villa.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the winner of the PSG vs Aston Villa UEFA Super Cup match after exactly 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time added by the referee, excluding any extra time periods or penalty kicks. If PSG scores more goals than Aston Villa by the end of regulation time, the 'PSG' market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Aston Villa scores more goals than PSG by the end of regulation time, the 'Aston Villa' market resolves to Yes. Should the game conclude with both teams level on the scoreboard after regulation time, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the markets will resolve to a fair price as per the secondary rules. Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the governing league or any associated entities, and all trademarks mentioned remain the property of their respective owners.

Limitless

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 12, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the PSG vs. Villa showdown market aggregates activity across multiple venues, showing total volume of $3,116 and 24-hour volume at $496. It displays consensus probabilities derived from trader positions, letting users monitor how Polymarket and Limitless price this market in real time. This unified view helps participants spot trends and compare expectations ahead of the match.

Prediction market odds on this market often diverge from traditional sportsbook lines due to different participant dynamics and pricing mechanisms. While sportsbooks may incorporate sharp lines and adjustments, prediction markets let traders bet directly on outcomes, sometimes producing prices that reflect deeper or more niche insights. The spread between the two can be as wide as 0.5 points, influenced by trader sentiment, liquidity, and recent team performance.

On Polymarket and Limitless, trader inventories and open interest can skew probabilities differently. Polymarket and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For instance, Polymarket currently favors Will Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-12? at 53.5%, while Limitless leans toward Paris Saint-Germain vs. Aston Villa: Paris Saint-Germain at 54.0%. Differences also arise from varying user bases, liquidity depths, and how each platform handles order execution, all of which shape unique price discovery paths for this market.

This market resolves around Aug 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is determined by the official match result, which is compared against trader positions to finalize settlement. Participants can track updates as the game approaches, but the final confirmation relies on widely accepted public records of the contest's conclusion.

Injuries, lineup changes, weather conditions, and recent form for key players are major signals that could shift this market. As the match nears, any last-minute roster updates or strategic announcements may cause rapid price swings. Traders will also watch for shifting momentum in related betting markets and media narratives, all of which can influence trader sentiment and drive volatility in this market right up to Aug 13, 2026.