TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 4, 5:00 PM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Paraguay and France, scheduled for July 4, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Paraguay" if Paraguay score more goals than France in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Paraguay and France score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "France" if France score more goals than Paraguay in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Paraguay and France, scheduled for July 4, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Paraguay" if Paraguay score more goals than France in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Paraguay and France score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "France" if France score more goals than Paraguay in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they serve different purposes and operate under different constraints. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and manage risk, while prediction markets derive prices from open trading between participants with real money at stake. This market aggregates the beliefs of many traders competing to profit, which can sometimes reveal information faster than traditional sportsbooks adjust their lines. However, sportsbooks may incorporate additional factors like sharp action or proprietary models. Comparing the two can highlight where market consensus differs from professional oddsmakers.
This market resolves around Jul 4, 2026, once the second half of the Paraguay vs. France match concludes and the result is verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the official final score of the second half alone, independent of the first-half result. Traders who backed the correct outcome receive their winnings based on the share price at which they entered. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the match ending, allowing the market to settle quickly and fairly.
Several factors could shift odds significantly before the match concludes. Team news—such as injuries, lineup changes, or tactical adjustments announced before kickoff—often triggers sharp price movement. Early first-half momentum and goals can influence expectations for the second half, as traders reassess fatigue levels and psychological momentum. Red cards or significant injuries during play may dramatically alter the probability of each outcome. Weather conditions, referee decisions, and substitution patterns all provide real-time signals that active traders monitor. Breaking news about player availability or team form can also prompt rapid repricing across this market.