TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 4, 7:09 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the exact final score of the Paraguay versus France FIFA World Cup soccer match at the end of regulation time on July 4, 2026. On Kalshi, France winning 1-0 carries a 71.0% probability, while France winning 2-0 stands at 20.0%. The market resolves based on the official final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Watch for team lineups and injury reports released in the days leading up to the July 4, 2026 kickoff, as these will significantly influence scoring expectations.
The Paraguay vs France match resolution is determined by the exact final score after 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time added by the referee, excluding any extra time or penalty shootout. All possible regulation time scorelines are covered, ranging from 0-0 draws to various victory margins for either team. The market captures the complete spectrum of potential outcomes that can occur within standard match duration, with each specific scoreline corresponding to a distinct resolution criterion. Resolution is based solely on the official final score as recorded at the conclusion of the 90-minute regulation period.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and manage risk, while prediction markets aggregate the beliefs of traders risking real money on outcomes. This market aggregates trader conviction about the final score, which may differ from traditional sportsbook pricing. Comparing the two can reveal where informed traders see value relative to conventional betting lines, though both sources provide useful perspectives on likely outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous order-book trading, where buyers and sellers submit bids and asks for each possible correct score outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the collective willingness of traders to commit capital, with higher prices indicating greater perceived likelihood. As new information surfaces—team news, injury reports, or betting patterns—traders adjust their positions, moving prices in real time. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market continuously incorporates available information.
This market resolves around Jul 5, 2026, once the match concludes and the final regulation-time score is confirmed. The outcome is determined by the official final score recorded during the 90-minute regulation period, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. Resolution occurs after the result is verifiable from credible public sources covering the event. Traders holding positions in the correct score will receive payouts based on the verified final outcome.
Several factors can shift odds in this market before resolution. Team news—such as injuries to key players, lineup changes, or tactical announcements—often triggers significant price movement. Betting patterns and sharp money flowing into particular outcomes can signal informed conviction. Pre-match analysis from respected analysts and media coverage may also influence trader positioning. As the match approaches, historical head-to-head records, recent form, and venue conditions become focal points. Once play begins, live developments can cause rapid repricing of remaining score possibilities.