TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 4, 7:04 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Paraguay will advance past France in their Round of 16 matchup at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. On Kalshi, Paraguay advancing is priced at 91.0%, while France advancing is at 10.0%. The market resolves based on the official match result as determined by FIFA, including extra time and penalty shootouts if needed. Watch for the final whistle on July 5, 2026, when the Round of 16 match concludes to determine which team progresses.
If Paraguay advance past France in the Paraguay vs France soccer match in the Round Of 16 of the FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If France advance past Paraguay in the Paraguay vs France soccer match in the Round Of 16 of the FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they serve different purposes and audiences. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets like this one price outcomes based on trader conviction and information flow. This market reflects what informed traders believe will happen, which can differ meaningfully from a sportsbook's opening or closing line. Comparing the two can reveal where the broader betting public and professional traders disagree on the likely result.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing each possible outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the probability traders assign to that outcome, ranging from near-zero to near-certainty. As new information emerges or trader sentiment shifts, bids and asks adjust in real time. This dynamic pricing ensures the market stays responsive to breaking news, team news, or other factors that might influence the match result.
This market resolves around Jul 5, 2026, once the Paraguay vs France match concludes and the result is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome will reflect the official final score and result as confirmed by authoritative sports reporting. Until that point, traders can continue to buy and sell positions as new information becomes available. Resolution timing may shift slightly if the fixture is postponed, but the market will remain active until a definitive outcome is established.
Several factors could shift trader positioning before the match concludes. Team news—injuries to key players, lineup changes, or tactical announcements—often triggers sharp price moves. Recent form, head-to-head records, and international tournament momentum can influence expectations. Weather conditions at kickoff and late-breaking betting syndicate activity may also sway the odds. Additionally, any official postponement or fixture changes would prompt immediate repricing. Traders monitor all these signals continuously, so this market can be volatile in the days and hours leading up to kickoff.