TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The song "Palace For The People" by Greta Van Fleet will have its U.S. streaming numbers tracked during the first week of October 2026. The market outcome hinges on whether the song surpasses various streaming benchmarks as reported by Luminate’s API.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on U.S. streaming data for the song "Palace For The People" by Greta Van Fleet during the tracking week of October 09, 2026, to October 15, 2026. Luminate’s API will report the official stream count at 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday immediately following the tracking week. Each market has a specific streaming threshold (ranging from 50K to 10M streams); if the reported streams meet or exceed the threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise No. Luminate Data, LLC acts as a neutral metrics provider and does not influence market outcomes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts, as public predictions regarding the initial viewership of the Palace For The People streams are limited. However, prediction markets often reflect a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ effect, potentially incorporating a broader range of information and perspectives than individual analyst reports. If initial analyst predictions emerge, comparing them to the probabilities reflected in this market will be a valuable exercise in assessing the predictive power of each approach.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand; increased buying pressure drives prices up, indicating higher perceived probability, while increased selling pressure lowers prices. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market remains responsive to new information and changing expectations regarding the Palace For The People streams.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official viewership numbers for the first week of streaming of the Palace For The People are verifiable from credible public reporting. The specific viewership metrics used for resolution will be determined by Kalshi and publicly available prior to the resolution date. Traders should review the market details on Kalshi for the exact criteria used to determine the winning outcome for this market.
Several factors could significantly influence the price movement in this market. Early reviews of the Palace For The People, pre-release marketing campaign effectiveness, and any unexpected publicity or controversies surrounding the show could all impact viewership expectations. Additionally, announcements regarding the availability of the streams on different platforms or any changes to the release schedule could also move this market. Positive or negative buzz on social media and streaming platforms will likely be reflected in trading activity as well.
