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Overwatch: Spacestation Gaming vs Disguised (BO3) - OCS North America Stage 2 Group Stage
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win Spacestation Gaming vs Disguised?

Volume:
$26,840

Spacestation Gaming

 - Kalshi

Spacestation Gaming - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 29, 2026

Closed: Jun 28, 7:09 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Spacestation Gaming

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,489
N/A
N/A
$7,720
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Match Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,421
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Games

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$161
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Game 2 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Disguised

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,758
N/A
N/A
$8,352
Settled
No
polymarket

Game 1 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers an Overwatch match between Spacestation Gaming and Disguised in the OCS North America Stage 2 Group Stage, scheduled for June 28, 2026 at 5:30 PM ET, in a best-of-three (BO3) format. Markets track the overall match winner, individual game winners (Game 1 and Game 2), and the total number of games played in the series.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction: both possible real-world outcomes (Disguised wins OR Spacestation Gaming wins) trigger Yes resolution, rendering the market non-functional. Polymarket markets are well-defined with explicit edge-case handling, but scope differs from Kalshi.Hero tip: Do not trade the Kalshi market—it will resolve Yes regardless of match outcome due to the OR condition. Trade only Polymarket markets (match winner, game winners, games total) which have clear, mutually exclusive outcomes and comprehensive edge-case rules. Always confirm official Liquipedia results within 2 hours post-match.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary Yes resolution if either Disguised or Spacestation Gaming wins. Quote: 'If Disguised wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Spacestation Gaming wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' No explicit handling of forfeits, cancellations, delays, or incomplete matches. This creates a logical tautology where all match outcomes resolve identically.
  • Polymarket: Four distinct markets with mutually exclusive outcomes: (1) Match Winner resolves to team name or 50-50 on cancellation/delay/forfeit; (2) Game 1 Winner resolves to team name or 50-50 on incompletion/cancellation; (3) Game 2 Winner resolves to team name or 50-50 on incompletion/cancellation; (4) Games Total resolves to Over (3+ games) or Under (fewer than 3) or 50-50 on cancellation/tie/delay. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Spacestation Gaming if Spacestation Gaming win the match... If the match is canceled... this market will resolve to 50-50.' Comprehensive edge-case rules provided.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the Overwatch match between Spacestation Gaming and Disguised in the OCS North America Stage 2 Group Stage, initially scheduled for June 28 at 5:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "Spacestation Gaming" if Spacestation Gaming win the match against Disguised. This market will resolve to "Disguised" if Disguised win the match against Spacestation Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://liquipedia.net/overwatch/Main_Page. However, if https://liquipedia.net/overwatch/Main_Page has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the final result of the OCS North America Stage 2 2026 Overwatch match between Disguised and Spacestation Gaming originally scheduled for June 28, 2026. The market resolves based on which team wins the match.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like these operate on crowd-sourced pricing rather than traditional sportsbook models. Instead of a bookmaker setting fixed lines, traders directly buy and sell shares reflecting their belief in each outcome, creating dynamic odds that shift with new information. This market-driven approach often captures real-time sentiment faster than sportsbooks, especially for niche esports events where traditional betting volume may be lower. However, prediction markets typically lack the liquidity and promotional incentives of established sportsbooks, so comparing odds requires checking both venues independently.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates under distinct regulatory frameworks, contract designs, and trader demographics. Kalshi structures binary yes-or-no outcomes, while Polymarket may segment the same event into multiple contracts (for example, individual game winners in a best-of-three series). Liquidity concentration also varies—one platform may attract more esports-focused traders, shifting the consensus price. Additionally, different fee structures and user interfaces influence which traders participate, creating temporary arbitrage opportunities between venues until prices converge.

Key catalysts include roster changes or player substitutions announced before the match, injury or availability updates for either team, recent tournament performance or head-to-head records, and meta shifts in Overwatch patch notes. Live match momentum during gameplay can also shift trader sentiment dramatically—early map wins or unexpected team compositions may trigger significant repricing. Media coverage, expert predictions, and betting activity on competing platforms can amplify moves. Traders should monitor team social media, esports news outlets, and patch release schedules for signals that could influence odds before the series begins.