TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 21, 10:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the potential margin of victory in an upcoming NHL game between Ottawa and Montreal. It focuses on how many goals the winning team scores beyond their opponent, reflecting the competitiveness of the match. Outcomes are determined by the final score and specific conditions around game scheduling.
The event consists of four markets, each tied to the Ottawa vs Montreal NHL game scheduled for September 21, 2026, and each resolving based on the margin of victory. Markets 1 and 2 address Montreal's potential win, requiring victories by more than 2.5 or more than 1.5 goals respectively, while Markets 3 and 4 address Ottawa's potential win, requiring victories by more than 1.5 or more than 2.5 goals respectively. All markets share consistent secondary rules: if the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of its original time, the result still applies; if the game is cancelled or does not start within this window, all markets resolve to a fair price. The resolution hinges entirely on the official final score and adherence to these timing conditions.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading based on their own analysis and information. As more people participate, the odds on Kalshi often become a strong indicator of the true probability of the outcome, potentially offering a different perspective than what’s available at sportsbooks.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different spread outcomes. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of the traders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that if many traders believe Ottawa is likely to cover, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase, and vice versa. The current price indicates the market's assessment of the probability of each possible spread result.
This market resolves around Sep 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Ottawa vs Montreal game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the league, and the market will settle to 100 for the outcome that matches the actual spread. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect spread will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Ottawa or Montreal teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in coaching strategies, weather forecasts for the game day, or even public sentiment shifts based on expert analysis could also impact trading activity. Unexpected news about team morale or internal conflicts could also play a role in how this market behaves leading up to Sep 22, 2026.