TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.4b
24H VOL:
$104,871,197
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,592,701,755
469,827
Markets across
35,657
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Will La Bola Negra win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?
$
Description
This prediction market asks users to forecast the winner of the Best International Feature Film award at the 99th Academy Awards in 2027. The award recognizes outstanding films produced outside of the United States.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: The markets offer different SKUs (potential winners), introducing risk that the winning film isn't listed on both platforms.Hero tip: Consider the probability of a film *not* listed on Kalshi winning, and factor that into your Polymarket positions. The 'another film' option on Polymarket is a hedge against this.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves to 'No' if a film is not nominated. Includes an 'Other' option if no winner is declared by June 30, 2027. Offers a catch-all 'another film' option. Tiebreaker is alphabetical order. "If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best International Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
- Kalshi: Resolves if a specific listed film wins. Includes a 'Tie' option. Does not explicitly address the case where a film isn't nominated or no winner is declared. "If La Bola Negra has won Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best International Feature Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best International Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
The event determines the winner of the Best International Feature Film category at the 99th Academy Awards, scheduled for March 2027. Each market corresponds to a specific film contender, with resolution set to 'Yes' if that particular film is announced as the category's winner during the awards ceremony. A separate market accounts for the possibility of a tie outcome. All markets explicitly disclaim any endorsement or official affiliation with the Academy Awards or the Oscars, clarifying that references are purely descriptive. The structure allows participants to speculate on the Academy's recognition of international cinema for that year.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often provide a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may rely on critical reception, historical trends, or campaign strength, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. While there can be correlation, prediction markets often incorporate information more quickly and efficiently, leading to potentially more accurate probabilities. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies and the influence of subjective biases in analyst predictions versus the objective price discovery process within this market.
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi for this market can diverge due to differences in trader demographics, market liquidity, and individual platform risk assessments. Polymarket may attract a different type of trader than Kalshi, leading to varying opinions on the likely winner. Furthermore, the volume of trading on each platform—currently $50,875 overall—influences price discovery, and differing volumes can contribute to price discrepancies. These platforms also have distinct fee structures and user interfaces, which can subtly affect trading behavior and, consequently, the prices observed in the Best International Feature Film market.
This market resolves around Dec 31, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official announcement of the Best International Feature Film winner at the Academy Awards ceremony will serve as the basis for determining the winning outcome. The winning film will be verified against credible public sources, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. Trading will cease once the official results are available, and payouts will be distributed accordingly.
Several events could significantly impact this market. Major film festival awards, such as those from Cannes, Venice, or Toronto, often influence perceptions of a film's chances. Critical reviews and box office performance can also shift probabilities. Campaign activity and industry buzz surrounding specific films will likely move the market. Unexpected political or social events that might affect the Academy's voting preferences could also be a catalyst. Finally, any news regarding eligibility or disqualification of potential nominees could cause substantial movement in this market.