TOTAL VOLUME:
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OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 12, 10:05 PM EST
Kalshi
The MLS clash between Orlando and Toronto on September 12, 2026, will test whether both sides can score during the full match duration, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts, with the outcome determined solely by goals in regular play.
If Orlando and Toronto both score a goal in the Orlando vs Toronto MLS match originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, representing their profit margin. This market, driven by the collective wisdom of traders, aims to reflect the true probability of both teams scoring. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on statistical models and expert opinions, this market evolves as more information and diverse viewpoints are considered. Discrepancies can arise due to differing risk assessments and the influence of public perception.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether both teams will score. The price of a contract directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if more people believe both teams will score, the price will rise, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date information.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether both Orlando and Toronto score at least one goal during the match. Official match data will be used to determine if both teams found the back of the net. The result will be based on the final scoreline of the game, and any potential overtime or penalty shootouts will not be considered for the purposes of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. News regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Orlando or Toronto would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, such as a recent winning or losing streak, could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions on match day might affect the style of play and goal-scoring potential. Even pre-game analysis from sports commentators and analysts could sway opinions and contribute to price fluctuations in this market.