TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 2, 8:25 AM EST
Kalshi
The outcome depends on the margin of victory in a baseball game between the Orix Buffaloes and the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles. A team must win by a specific number of runs for certain conditions to be met.
The market resolves based on the run differential in the Japan NPB game between the Orix Buffaloes and Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles scheduled for Sep 2, 2026. If the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles win by more than 2.5 runs, the first market resolves to Yes. If they win by more than 1.5 runs, the second market resolves to Yes. If the Orix Buffaloes win by more than 1.5 runs, the third market resolves to Yes. If they win by more than 2.5 runs, the fourth market resolves to Yes. All markets are independent and resolved based solely on the final score of the specified game.
Prediction market odds in this market often reflect a more nuanced, trader-driven view compared to traditional sportsbook lines. While sportsbooks set fixed spreads based on analytics and public betting patterns, prediction markets adjust dynamically as participants buy and sell contracts, potentially offering sharper or more volatile pricing depending on recent performance, injuries, or weather conditions.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the price through their bids and offers, with the current top outcome reflecting the collective assessment of which team will cover the spread. The market’s probability representation is derived from the ongoing trading activity, showing how participants value the chances of each possible result as the game approaches.
This market resolves around Sep 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score and official spread result will determine whether the Orix Buffaloes or Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles have covered the set run line, closing the market based on that definitive game outcome.
Key signals such as starting pitcher announcements, recent team performance, injuries to key players, or weather forecasts could shift this market. Any update that changes the perceived advantage for either team in covering the spread may cause traders to adjust their positions, impacting the odds and volume as the game draws nearer.