TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Orix Buffaloes vs. Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Orix Buffaloes vs Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles?

Volume:
$41,646

Orix Buffaloes wins by over 1.5 runs

 - Kalshi

Orix Buffaloes wins by over 1.5 runs - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 5, 2026

Closed: Aug 3, 8:44 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Orix Buffaloes wins by over 1.5 runs

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,344
N/A
N/A
$6,422
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Orix Buffaloes vs. Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,645
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Orix Buffaloes wins by over 2.5 runs

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,576
N/A
N/A
$2,312
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles wins by over 2.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15,628
N/A
N/A
$5,379
Settled
No
kalshi

Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles wins by over 1.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,453
N/A
N/A
$4,793
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group covers outcomes of an upcoming NPB baseball game between the Orix Buffaloes and the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles. The markets differ in their resolution criteria, with one focusing on the simple win condition and the other on run differentials.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The Polymarket contract resolves on a simple win condition while the Kalshi contract resolves on specific run differential thresholds, creating potential for unresolved Kalshi positions even when Polymarket is resolved.Hero tip: Traders should monitor both the win condition and the exact run differential in the game. A narrow Orix Buffaloes win would resolve Polymarket but might leave Kalshi markets unresolved if it doesn't meet any of the specified run differential thresholds.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the winning team (Orix Buffaloes or Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles), with ties or cancellations splitting payouts 50-50. Key quote: If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if any of the four run differential conditions are met (Orix win by >2.5 runs, Orix win by >1.5 runs, Tohoku win by >1.5 runs, Tohoku win by >2.5 runs). Key quote: If the Orix Buffaloes win by more than 1.5 runs...then the market resolves to Yes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming NPB game, scheduled for August 5 at 5:00AM ET: If the Orix Buffaloes win, the market will resolve to "Orix Buffaloes". If the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles win, the market will resolve to "Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the NPB. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

This event includes several markets centered on the spread—specifically, the margin of victory—in a baseball game between Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles and Orix Buffaloes. There are four primary rules: Orix Buffaloes winning by over 2.5 runs, Orix Buffaloes winning by over 1.5 runs, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles winning by over 1.5 runs, and Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles winning by over 2.5 runs. Each market will resolve to Yes if the specified team wins by more than the indicated run margin in the game scheduled for August 3, 2026, at 5:00 AM EDT. As with the total runs event, the secondary rules note that the platform has no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Orix vs. Rakuten matchup market aggregates activity across multiple venues, showing real-time consensus and divergence. It tracks total volume of $41,646 and 24-hour volume of $36,413, letting users see how Polymarket and Kalshi price this market. The view updates continuously, reflecting where traders on each platform stand on the likely winner or margin of victory between the two teams.

Injuries, pitching changes, weather delays, and recent head-to-head performance are key signals that could shift this market. Key player updates or changes to starting lineups often trigger rapid price adjustments, especially on platforms with lower volume. Traders will also watch for any last-minute bullpen moves or lineup swaps that could affect the expected run differential or outright win probability.