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400,720

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30,097

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

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VS.

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61%

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Orix Buffaloes vs. Nippon Ham Fighters
kalshi
polymarket

Orix Buffaloes vs. Nippon Ham Fighters

Volume:
$6,349

Orix Buffaloes vs. Nippon Ham Fighters

 - Polymarket

Orix Buffaloes vs. Nippon Ham Fighters - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 14, 2026

Closed: Aug 14, 10:11 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Orix Buffaloes vs. Nippon Ham Fighters

View
100%
57%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,295
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Orix Buffaloes wins by over 1.5 runs

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$426
N/A
N/A
$401
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Orix Buffaloes wins by over 2.5 runs

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$365
N/A
N/A
$359
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters wins by over 1.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,408
N/A
N/A
$1,405
Settled
No
kalshi

Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters wins by over 2.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$856
N/A
N/A
$788
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group covers the outcome of an NPB baseball game between the Orix Buffaloes and the Nippon Ham Fighters scheduled for August 14 at 5:00AM ET. The markets will resolve based on the game's result, with specific conditions for wins, ties, cancellations, and make-up games.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets have fundamentally different resolution criteria — Polymarket resolves on win/loss/tie, while Kalshi resolves on run differential thresholds.Hero tip: Avoid cross-platform arbitrage between these markets. A Orix Buffaloes win by exactly 2 runs would resolve as a win on Polymarket but would not meet any Kalshi threshold. Always check the specific market's resolution rules before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to Orix Buffaloes if they win, Nippon Ham Fighters if they win, and 50-50 for ties or cancellations. Quote: If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes only if the winning team meets specific run differential thresholds (more than 1.5 or more than 2.5 runs). Quote: If the Orix Buffaloes win by more than 2.5 runs...then the market resolves to Yes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming NPB game, scheduled for August 14 at 5:00AM ET: If the Orix Buffaloes win, the market will resolve to "Orix Buffaloes". If the Nippon Ham Fighters win, the market will resolve to "Nippon Ham Fighters". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the NPB. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The event consists of four separate markets, each evaluating different run-margin thresholds for either the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters or the Orix Buffaloes to win the game scheduled for August 14, 2026. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified team wins by more than the designated run margin—either 1.5 or 2.5 runs. The game must be the one originally scheduled for the stated date and time. All markets are independent, meaning each has its own resolution criteria based solely on the run differential of the final score. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Orix vs. Nippon Ham matchup market aggregates real-time data from multiple prediction platforms, showing how traders price the contest’s possible outcomes. It displays total volume of $6,349 and 24-hour volume of $6,243, letting you see where consensus lies and how sentiment shifts over time. By tracking this market across venues, you can gauge collective expectations for the game and spot emerging trends before they fully play out.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can vary due to differences in user base, liquidity, and trading mechanics. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For instance, one platform might attract more local fans, skewing its odds toward a specific team, while the other could reflect a more global view. Additionally, each venue sets its own fee structure and minimum trading units, which influences how traders place bets and therefore how prices form.