TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Orix Buffaloes vs. Nippon Ham Fighters
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Orix Buffaloes vs. Nippon Ham Fighters?

Volume:
$154,168

Orix Buffaloes vs. Nippon Ham Fighters

 - Polymarket

Orix Buffaloes vs. Nippon Ham Fighters - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 20, 2026

Closed: Jul 27, 12:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Orix Buffaloes vs. Nippon Ham Fighters

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$20,553
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 7.5 runs scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$80,348
N/A
N/A
$41,941
Settled
No
kalshi

Over 5.5 runs scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$45,868
N/A
N/A
$26,691
Settled
No
kalshi

Over 9.5 runs scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,240
N/A
N/A
$4,536
Settled
No
kalshi

Over 11.5 runs scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,160
N/A
N/A
$1,156
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group covers a July 20, 2026 NPB matchup between the Orix Buffaloes and Nippon Ham Fighters. Polymarket offers a binary win/loss market, while Kalshi offers four separate over/under markets on combined team scoring (5.5, 7.5, 9.5, and 11.5 runs). The markets measure fundamentally different outcomes: winner determination vs. total offensive output.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi measure fundamentally different outcomes: Polymarket resolves on game winner (binary), while Kalshi resolves on combined run totals (measurement). Kalshi also contains a data integrity flag by mislabeling NPB as College Baseball.Hero tip: These markets are not hedges of each other. A Buffaloes victory does not predict the combined run total. Monitor both independently. Flag Kalshi's game classification error with support before July 20 to ensure correct game is being tracked.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary winner-take-all market. Resolves to Orix Buffaloes or Nippon Ham Fighters based on game outcome. Postponed games remain open; canceled games or ties resolve 50-50. Source: official NPB information and credible reporting.
  • Kalshi: Four separate over/under markets on combined team runs at 5.5, 7.5, 9.5, and 11.5 thresholds. Each resolves Yes if combined score exceeds threshold. Game mislabeled as College Baseball (NPB is professional). No explicit postponement or cancellation rules provided.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming NPB game, scheduled for July 20 at 12:00AM ET: If the Orix Buffaloes win, the market will resolve to "Orix Buffaloes". If the Nippon Ham Fighters win, the market will resolve to "Nippon Ham Fighters". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the NPB. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the combined run total scored by both teams in the scheduled game. The event contains multiple thresholds: if the combined total exceeds 5.5 runs, 7.5 runs, 9.5 runs, or 11.5 runs, each respective market resolves affirmatively. The final combined score determines which thresholds are met. All resolutions are based on the official final score of the game as originally scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 12:00 AM EDT.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market activity across Polymarket and Kalshi for the Orix Buffaloes vs. Nippon Ham Fighters matchup. Traders on both venues are pricing outcomes related to this NPB contest, with combined volume of $154,168 across all linked markets. The dashboard displays real-time odds, historical price movements, and consensus forecasts, helping you compare how different prediction communities assess the likely result. You can monitor shifts in trader sentiment as game day approaches and track which outcomes are drawing the most activity.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on crowd-sourced pricing: traders buy and sell shares tied to outcomes, and the market price reflects the collective belief of active participants. Traditional sportsbooks, by contrast, set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins. Prediction market prices often incorporate real-time information and can shift rapidly as new data emerges, whereas sportsbook odds may lag or be constrained by risk management. Both reflect expected probabilities, but prediction markets tend to be more responsive to breaking news and trader conviction.

Key catalysts include roster announcements, injury reports, recent team performance trends, and weather conditions on game day. Betting action on external sportsbooks can also signal shifting expectations and influence prediction market prices. Breaking news about player availability, managerial decisions, or venue changes may trigger sharp repricing. As the event date approaches, traders typically increase activity, and any surprise developments—such as lineup changes or unexpected team statements—could cause significant swings. Monitor sports news outlets and official team communications for updates that could reshape market sentiment.