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Orix Buffaloes vs. Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Orix Buffaloes vs. Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks?

Volume:
$22,920

Over 7.5 runs scored

 - Kalshi

Over 7.5 runs scored - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 16, 2026

Closed: Sep 15, 7:50 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Over 7.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,416
N/A
N/A
$4,904
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 5.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,344
N/A
N/A
$2,412
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Orix Buffaloes vs. Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks

View
0%
33%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,323
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 9.5 runs scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,447
N/A
N/A
$1,885
Settled
No
kalshi

Over 11.5 runs scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,389
N/A
N/A
$1,389
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This group centers around the outcome of a Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) game between the Orix Buffaloes and the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. The primary question focuses on which team will win the game, with considerations for postponement or cancellation.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets ask fundamentally different questions about different games. Polymarket concerns a win/loss outcome, while Kalshi concerns total runs in a future game.Hero tip: Trade the Polymarket market if you want to predict the winner of the September 16th game. Ignore the Kalshi market as it is unrelated.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the winning team of the September 16th game, or 50-50 in case of a tie or cancellation. "If the Orix Buffaloes win, the market will resolve to "Orix Buffaloes"."
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on whether the combined score of a game scheduled for September 15, 2026 exceeds a specified threshold (5.5, 7.5, 9.5, or 11.5 runs). "If Fukuoka Hawks and Orix Buffaloes collectively score more than 5.5 runs... then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming NPB game, scheduled for September 16 at 5:00AM ET: If the Orix Buffaloes win, the market will resolve to "Orix Buffaloes". If the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks win, the market will resolve to "Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the NPB. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The markets resolve based on whether the combined runs scored by the Fukuoka Hawks and Orix Buffaloes in their college baseball game scheduled for September 15, 2026, at 5:00 AM EDT, exceed specified thresholds. Four separate thresholds are defined: 5.5, 7.5, 9.5, and 11.5 runs. If the actual total runs exceed any given threshold, the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. All markets are independent, and each threshold represents a distinct outcome based on the game's final score. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the aggregate prediction probabilities for the NPB championship. Currently, the consensus view across these platforms indicates a strong likelihood of one outcome leading, with a combined volume of $22,920. This allows users to see how traders are pricing the potential winner of the championship, and how opinions are shifting over time. The dashboard provides a unified view of the the NPB championship market, aggregating data from multiple sources to give a comprehensive overview of market sentiment. The 24-hour volume is $20,783.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while prediction markets allow anyone to express their belief and trade on it. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly diverges from expert opinion. It’s possible to find arbitrage opportunities by comparing the implied probabilities between this market and sportsbook offerings.

Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Key player injuries, unexpected performance shifts from either team, and significant changes in team strategy could all impact predictions. News regarding pitching rotations, batting lineups, and overall team morale can also move the market. Major upsets in early games of the series, or even weather forecasts predicting disruptions to the schedule, could also cause traders to reassess their positions and adjust their forecasts accordingly, leading to shifts in volume and price.