TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 4:15 AM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the margin of victory in an upcoming baseball game between two professional teams. Each market corresponds to a specific run differential threshold that determines the outcome. The resolution depends entirely on the final score difference between the competing teams.
These markets resolve based on the run differential in the Orix Buffaloes vs Fukuoka Hawks Japan NPB game scheduled for September 27, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs when the winning team exceeds the specified run margin: over 2.5 runs for either team, or over 1.5 runs specifically for the Fukuoka Hawks or Orix Buffaloes. All markets share the same underlying event – the official game result – and resolve independently according to their respective thresholds. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates the collective predictions of many individuals. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously betting on both platforms. However, it's important to remember that prediction markets and sportsbooks have different fee structures and liquidity levels, which can influence the observed price differences.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final run differential between the Orix Buffaloes and the Fukuoka Hawks in the specified game. The market will determine whether the Orix Buffaloes win by over 2.5 runs, and the result will be sourced from official game statistics. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results to understand the market’s settlement.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in pitching rotations, or weather forecasts could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected performance in preceding games by either the Orix Buffaloes or the Fukuoka Hawks could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, major announcements about team strategies or managerial decisions might lead to adjustments in the perceived probabilities. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on market movements before Sep 27, 2026.