TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 23, 3:01 AM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the margin of victory in a baseball game between two teams. It determines whether one team wins by a specific run difference, offering varied thresholds for how decisive the victory must be. Outcomes reflect the competitive balance and performance of the teams during the match.
The markets collectively evaluate the margin of victory in the Orix Buffaloes vs Fukuoka Hawks game scheduled for August 23, 2026. Four distinct outcomes are defined based on the winning team and the run difference: Fukuoka Hawks winning by over 2.5 runs, Fukuoka Hawks winning by over 1.5 runs, Orix Buffaloes winning by over 1.5 runs, and Orix Buffaloes winning by over 2.5 runs. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified condition is met in the game as originally scheduled. All markets are independent assessments of the game's result, with each threshold providing a different level of certainty regarding the margin of victory. The secondary rules clarify that the platform hosting these markets has no official affiliation with the Japan NPB league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders actively set the price for this market by buying and selling contracts that represent different run-difference outcomes. The current implied probability reflects the collective view of participants about which team is expected to cover the spread, with liquidity levels influencing how quickly prices adjust to new information.
This market resolves around Aug 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score difference will determine whether the Fukuoka Hawks covered the spread or not, closing all open positions based on the official game result.
Injuries to key players, weather forecasts affecting game conditions, and pitching rotations announced closer to the date can all shift this market. Strong performance in recent matches by either team’s starters, or any last-minute lineup changes, may also cause rapid shifts in trader sentiment before Aug 23, 2026. Keep an eye on official team announcements and starting lineups as the game approaches.