TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 22, 8:25 AM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the margin of victory in a baseball game between two teams, the Orix Buffaloes and the Chiba Lotte Marines. Each market corresponds to a specific run differential threshold that determines the outcome. The resolution depends entirely on the final score of the game as it was scheduled to occur on a specific date and time.
The markets collectively evaluate the margin by which either the Orix Buffaloes or the Chiba Lotte Marines win the specified baseball match. Four distinct thresholds are defined: the Chiba Lotte Marines winning by over 2.5 runs, the Chiba Lotte Marines winning by over 1.5 runs, the Orix Buffaloes winning by over 1.5 runs, and the Orix Buffaloes winning by over 2.5 runs. The market resolves to 'Yes' for the applicable threshold if the winning team exceeds the corresponding run differential. All markets are based on the official result of the game as scheduled for September 22, 2026, at 5:00 AM EDT. The resolving entity explicitly disclaims any formal association with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the collective wisdom of traders. If a significant number of traders believe the Orix Buffaloes will win by more than the spread, the price will move in that direction, potentially diverging from sportsbook lines. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, analytical approaches, or simply varying levels of confidence in a particular outcome.
On Kalshi, the price of contracts in this market is determined by the forces of supply and demand, reflecting the aggregated predictions of all traders. Traders are incentivized to accurately forecast the spread between the Orix Buffaloes and Chiba Lotte Marines, and their actions directly influence the market price. This creates a dynamic pricing system where the odds continuously adjust as new information becomes available and opinions shift. The current volume traded provides insight into the level of interest and conviction surrounding potential outcomes.
This market resolves around Sep 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final score of the Orix Buffaloes versus Chiba Lotte Marines game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether the Orix Buffaloes win by more than the specified spread. The final result will be determined by official game statistics and will be publicly available following the completion of the game. Traders holding contracts on the winning side will receive a payout.
Numerous events could shift the odds in this market before it resolves around Sep 22, 2026. Major developments like confirmed starting pitchers, significant player injuries, or unexpected lineup changes would be key catalysts. Game outcomes leading up to the final matchup, particularly strong wins or surprising losses, will also influence trader sentiment. Even external factors, such as changes in betting trends or influential analyst predictions, could contribute to price fluctuations as traders adjust their forecasts for the Orix Buffaloes versus Chiba Lotte Marines spread.