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Closed: Sep 26, 11:19 PM EST
Kalshi
Oregon and USC could see their game extend into overtime if neither team leads at the conclusion of regulation. Overtime periods provide extra chances for either team to achieve a winning margin, often through alternating possessions or scoring attempts.
If at least 1 overtime period is played in the Oregon vs USC college football game originally scheduled for Sep 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of wisdom than sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective belief of traders willing to put their money where their mouth is. Frequently, prediction markets are more accurate than traditional polls or even initial sportsbook lines, as they incentivize participants to be well-informed. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or breaking news impacts perceptions of the game’s likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time, making it a valuable tool for forecasting the likelihood of overtime in the Oregon vs USC game.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on whether the Oregon vs USC game goes into overtime. If the game ends after the standard four quarters without a tie, the market will settle accordingly. The final result will be determined by official game statistics and reporting, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome for all participants in this market.
Several signals could significantly move this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Oregon or USC would likely have a substantial impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favorable to a lower-scoring, closer game, could also shift probabilities. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced leading up to the game could also influence trader sentiment. Finally, any significant shifts in public perception, reflected in updated sportsbook odds or expert analysis, could drive trading activity and alter the market’s forecast.