TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 26, 11:19 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track specific combinations of first-half and full-game outcomes in an upcoming college football matchup. Each market requires both the first-half result and the final game result to match a predefined scenario for resolution. The outcomes consider all possible results, including ties in the first half.
All markets resolve based on the combined results of the first half and the full game (including overtime) of the Oregon vs USC college football game scheduled for September 26, 2026. For a market to resolve as Yes, both the specified first-half result and the specified full-game result must occur exactly as described. If either the first-half or full-game result does not match the market's conditions, it resolves to No. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, the markets remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game fails to start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price. Each market corresponds to one of four possible first-half outcomes (USC win, Oregon win, tie) paired with one of two possible full-game outcomes (USC win, Oregon win), resulting in eight distinct market conditions that must be satisfied for a Yes resolution.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or seek to profit from public perception, while this market aggregates the views of individuals incentivized to make accurate predictions. However, differences can occur due to varying levels of information, risk appetite, and market liquidity. It's common to see initial discrepancies that narrow as the event approaches and more information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. The current volume of $15,374 suggests the level of interest and participation in predicting the result of the Oregon vs USC game.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the Oregon vs USC game – whether Oregon wins the first half and/or the full game, or USC wins – will be used to determine the winning contracts. Resolution will be based on official game results, and any adjustments or clarifications made by the governing sports body. The outcome is determined by the official score at the conclusion of the game.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. News regarding key player injuries for either Oregon or USC would likely cause shifts in the odds. Unexpected coaching changes, significant weather forecasts impacting game conditions, or even major shifts in public sentiment based on pre-game analysis could also move the market. Any updates on team strategies or reported morale could influence trader behavior, leading to price adjustments. The closer we get to Sep 27, 2026, the more sensitive this market will be to breaking news and late-developing information.