TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 12:02 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Orange County and Pittsburgh, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals each team scores during regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. Bets are settled based on whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential.
The event evaluates different goal-differential thresholds for determining a winning outcome in the Orange County vs Pittsburgh USL Championship soccer match scheduled for September 26, 2026. Resolution occurs based on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty phases. Four distinct outcome criteria exist: Orange County must win by more than 2.5 goals, Orange County must win by more than 1.5 goals, Pittsburgh must win by more than 1.5 goals, or Pittsburgh must win by more than 2.5 goals. The market resolves to 'Yes' for the specific rule that matches the actual goal differential, with all other rules resolving as 'No'. The governing body is the USL Championship, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the league. Trademarks and branding belong to their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which are set by professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public betting percentages and risk management into their lines, while this market relies on individuals directly expressing their beliefs about the final score difference. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, biases, or simply varying interpretations of team strengths. It's common to see prediction markets react more quickly to new information, as traders continuously adjust their positions based on evolving data and insights.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the Orange County vs Pittsburgh spread. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectations of the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. The current price indicates the probability that the spread will fall within a certain range, as determined by the bids and asks in the order book. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a fluid and responsive assessment of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the actual point difference between the Orange County and Pittsburgh teams at the conclusion of the game. The market will settle based on the official result reported by a trusted sports data source. Any adjustments or corrections to the official score will be reflected in the final settlement. Traders holding contracts will be paid out or required to pay based on whether their predictions align with the actual spread.
Several factors could significantly influence the Orange County vs Pittsburgh spread between now and Sep 27, 2026. Key player injuries on either team would likely cause a shift in the market, as would any major changes in coaching strategies or team performance. Unexpected news regarding team morale or internal conflicts could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, significant weather forecasts for the game day, or any late-breaking news about player availability, could lead to substantial price movements in this market. Public perception, as reflected in media coverage and expert analysis, can also play a role.