TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$87,176,691
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,391,958,194
394,660
Markets across
30,119
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,626
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 12:35 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of two soccer teams in a scheduled match, focusing on the margin of victory for each team. The outcome depends on whether the winning team achieves a specific goal differential threshold. The event is tied to a professional league game, with resolution based solely on the final score after regular time.
The event resolves based on the goal differential by which either Orange County or Las Vegas Lights wins the specified USL Championship soccer match. Four distinct outcomes are evaluated: Orange County winning by more than 2.5 goals, Orange County winning by more than 1.5 goals, Las Vegas Lights winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Las Vegas Lights winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions are determined after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. The event exclusively considers the standard match result and does not account for any post-match proceedings. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance betting action, while this market allows traders to freely adjust probabilities based on information and analysis. Discrepancies can arise from differing information sources, analytical approaches, or simply variations in opinion among bettors and sportsbook operators. Examining these differences can reveal insights into where the market believes there’s value or mispricing compared to traditional betting venues.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the latest information and expectations. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth shows the available buy and sell orders at various price points, indicating the level of demand and supply for each outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a fluid and responsive assessment of the potential results of the Orange County vs Las Vegas Lights match.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final score of the Orange County vs Las Vegas Lights match, specifically the point spread. The platform will verify the result against trusted sources to ensure accuracy. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution. It’s important to monitor the event’s progress and the market’s activity leading up to the resolution date.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 13, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or shifts in coaching strategies could significantly impact expectations. Unexpected weather conditions on match day could also play a role. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large volume trades on Kalshi could indicate new information or a change in sentiment among traders. Monitoring these signals and staying informed about the teams involved will be key to understanding potential market movements.