Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Kalshi align on the same match, same time window (90 min + stoppage), same primary source (cbf.com.br), and same contingency logic for postponement and cancellation.
Primary resolution logic:
cbf.com.br (official Copa do Brasil governing body statistics); secondary source is credible reporting consensus if official statistics unavailable within 2 hours post-match conclusion
Core resolution logic:
All markets resolve on the official final score from cbf.com.br for Operário Ferroviário EC vs. Fluminense FC on April 23, 2026
Resolution window is 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only; extra time and penalties are excluded
Kalshi total-goals markets (Over 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5) resolve Yes if combined goals exceed the stated threshold
Polymarket spread markets resolve based on goal differential: -1.5 spread requires 2+ goal margin, -2.5 spread requires 3+ goal margin
Polymarket over/under markets (O/U 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5) resolve Over if combined goals meet or exceed the stated threshold plus one
Both-teams-to-score resolves Yes only if each team scores at least one goal; No if either team finishes with zero goals
If match is postponed, all markets remain open until the match is completed
If match is canceled entirely with no makeup game, all markets resolve 50-50
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Match postponement: Markets remain open and unresolved until the match is completed on a rescheduled date
Match cancellation without makeup: All markets in the group resolve 50-50 (split stakes equally between Yes and No outcomes)
Match starts but does not complete: Resolution uses the official final score as published by cbf.com.br; if unavailable within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, credible reporting consensus is used
Extra time or penalties: These are explicitly excluded from resolution; only 90 minutes plus stoppage time counts
Threshold boundary (e.g., exactly 1.5 goals): Kalshi markets require MORE THAN the stated threshold (e.g., >1.5 means 2+); Polymarket O/U markets require the threshold or more (e.g., O/U 1.5 Over means 2+)
Timing:
Resolution occurs after the match concludes and the official final score is published by cbf.com.br, or within 2 hours post-conclusion if credible reporting consensus is required. Match is scheduled for April 23, 2026 at 8:30 PM ET.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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