TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$87,997,338

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,395,155,069

395,664

Markets across

30,076

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,626

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Once Caldas vs. Independiente Medellín
polymarket
kalshi

Once Caldas vs. Independiente Medellín

Volume:
$169,401

Tie

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 3, 2026

Closed: Apr 3, 12:30 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tie

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$35,267
N/A
N/A
$33,441
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw (Once Caldas vs. Independiente Medellín)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,886
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Once Caldas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$52,708
N/A
N/A
$41,347
Settled
No
polymarket

Once Caldas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,676
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ind. Medellin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$45,532
N/A
N/A
$31,584
Settled
No
polymarket

Independiente Medellín

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,332
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers a Colombian Liga DIMAYOR soccer match between Once Caldas and Independiente Medellín scheduled for April 2, 2026. Three binary markets on Polymarket ask about individual outcomes (Once Caldas win, draw, Independiente Medellín win), while Kalshi offers a single market that resolves Yes if any of the three outcomes occur. The resolution scope is identical across all markets: 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's single market conflates all three possible outcomes into a single Yes resolution, making it logically unresolvable and incompatible with Polymarket's three mutually exclusive binary markets. This is a data integrity failure that prevents meaningful price discovery on Kalshi.Hero tip: Avoid trading Kalshi's market until the platform clarifies whether it should resolve Yes only for a specific outcome (e.g., Independiente Medellín win only) or whether it is a catch-all market. Polymarket's three-market structure is the correct framework for this match.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Three independent binary markets partition all outcomes: Once Caldas Win (Yes/No), Draw (Yes/No), Independiente Medellín Win (Yes/No). Each resolves based on official DIMAYOR statistics or credible consensus within 2 hours of match conclusion. Postponement keeps markets open; cancellation with no makeup resolves Draw to Yes and the two win markets to No.
  • Kalshi: Single market with three resolution conditions, all triggering Yes: Independiente Medellín wins OR Draw OR Once Caldas wins. This creates logical impossibility—the market cannot distinguish between outcomes and will always resolve Yes if the match is played, rendering it non-informative.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.