TOTAL VOLUME:

$54.4b

24H VOL:

$230,557,910

24H TRANSACTIONS:

531,611,392

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,202,344,730

501,342

Markets across

13,602

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

1,822

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

51%

VS.

Kalshi:

49%

BETA
Dashboards
polymarket
kalshi
Trending

Once Caldas vs. Independiente Medellín

Volume:
$169,401
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade

Description

This event group covers a Colombian Liga DIMAYOR soccer match between Once Caldas and Independiente Medellín scheduled for April 2, 2026. Three binary markets on Polymarket ask about individual outcomes (Once Caldas win, draw, Independiente Medellín win), while Kalshi offers a single market that resolves Yes if any of the three outcomes occur. The resolution scope is identical across all markets: 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue:

Kalshi's single market conflates all three possible outcomes into a single Yes resolution, making it logically unresolvable and incompatible with Polymarket's three mutually exclusive binary markets. This is a data integrity failure that prevents meaningful price discovery on Kalshi.

Hero Tip:

Avoid trading Kalshi's market until the platform clarifies whether it should resolve Yes only for a specific outcome (e.g., Independiente Medellín win only) or whether it is a catch-all market. Polymarket's three-market structure is the correct framework for this match.

Critical Divergence Points:

  • Polymarket: Three independent binary markets partition all outcomes: Once Caldas Win (Yes/No), Draw (Yes/No), Independiente Medellín Win (Yes/No). Each resolves based on official DIMAYOR statistics or credible consensus within 2 hours of match conclusion. Postponement keeps markets open; cancellation with no makeup resolves Draw to Yes and the two win markets to No.
  • Kalshi: Single market with three resolution conditions, all triggering Yes: Independiente Medellín wins OR Draw OR Once Caldas wins. This creates logical impossibility—the market cannot distinguish between outcomes and will always resolve Yes if the match is played, rendering it non-informative.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.